Hans Estrup Andersen

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Standard

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea. / Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiainen, Kari; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Alena Bartosova, Alena ; Gustafsson, Bo; Jabloun, Mohamed; McCrackin, Michelle ; Meier, H.E. Markus; Olesen, Jørgen E; Saraiva, Sofia; Swaney, Dennis P.; Thodsen, Hans.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 731, No. 138935, 138935, 18.05.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Pihlainen, S, Zandersen, M, Hyytiainen, K, Andersen, HE, Alena Bartosova, A, Gustafsson, B, Jabloun, M, McCrackin, M, Meier, HEM, Olesen, JE, Saraiva, S, Swaney, DP & Thodsen, H 2020, 'Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 731, no. 138935, 138935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

APA

Pihlainen, S., Zandersen, M., Hyytiainen, K., Andersen, H. E., Alena Bartosova, A., Gustafsson, B., Jabloun, M., McCrackin, M., Meier, H. E. M., Olesen, J. E., Saraiva, S., Swaney, D. P., & Thodsen, H. (2020). Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea. Science of the Total Environment, 731(138935), [138935]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

CBE

Pihlainen S, Zandersen M, Hyytiainen K, Andersen HE, Alena Bartosova A, Gustafsson B, Jabloun M, McCrackin M, Meier HEM, Olesen JE, Saraiva S, Swaney DP, Thodsen H. 2020. Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea. Science of the Total Environment. 731(138935):Article 138935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

MLA

Vancouver

Pihlainen S, Zandersen M, Hyytiainen K, Andersen HE, Alena Bartosova A, Gustafsson B et al. Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea. Science of the Total Environment. 2020 May 18;731(138935). 138935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

Author

Pihlainen, Sampo ; Zandersen, Marianne ; Hyytiainen, Kari ; Andersen, Hans Estrup ; Alena Bartosova, Alena ; Gustafsson, Bo ; Jabloun, Mohamed ; McCrackin, Michelle ; Meier, H.E. Markus ; Olesen, Jørgen E ; Saraiva, Sofia ; Swaney, Dennis P. ; Thodsen, Hans. / Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2020 ; Vol. 731, No. 138935.

Bibtex

@article{e6f37d604fab493ebceb87396d5be6a3,
title = "Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea",
abstract = "This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.",
keywords = "{\O}sters{\o}en, Eutrofiering, scenarier, klimaforandringer, samfundsudvikling",
author = "Sampo Pihlainen and Marianne Zandersen and Kari Hyytiainen and Andersen, {Hans Estrup} and {Alena Bartosova}, Alena and Bo Gustafsson and Mohamed Jabloun and Michelle McCrackin and Meier, {H.E. Markus} and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen E} and Sofia Saraiva and Swaney, {Dennis P.} and Hans Thodsen",
year = "2020",
month = may,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935",
language = "English",
volume = "731",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
issn = "0048-9697",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "138935",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

AU - Pihlainen, Sampo

AU - Zandersen, Marianne

AU - Hyytiainen, Kari

AU - Andersen, Hans Estrup

AU - Alena Bartosova, Alena

AU - Gustafsson, Bo

AU - Jabloun, Mohamed

AU - McCrackin, Michelle

AU - Meier, H.E. Markus

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E

AU - Saraiva, Sofia

AU - Swaney, Dennis P.

AU - Thodsen, Hans

PY - 2020/5/18

Y1 - 2020/5/18

N2 - This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

AB - This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

KW - Østersøen

KW - Eutrofiering

KW - scenarier

KW - klimaforandringer

KW - samfundsudvikling

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32428749

VL - 731

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

IS - 138935

M1 - 138935

ER -