Hans Estrup Andersen

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

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  • Sampo Pihlainen, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland, Finland
  • Marianne Zandersen
  • Kari Hyytiainen, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
  • ,
  • Hans Estrup Andersen
  • Alena Alena Bartosova, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
  • ,
  • Bo Gustafsson, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland, Sweden
  • Mohamed Jabloun, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
  • ,
  • Michelle McCrackin, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
  • ,
  • H.E. Markus Meier, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland, Sweden
  • Jørgen E Olesen
  • Sofia Saraiva, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland, Sweden
  • Dennis P. Swaney, Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland, Sweden
  • Hans Thodsen
This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is
computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.
Original languageEnglish
Article number138935
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume731
Issue138935
Number of pages11
ISSN0048-9697
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 May 2020
Externally publishedYes

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