Aarhus University Seal / Aarhus Universitets segl

Erik Jeppesen

Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beysehir

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Tuba Bucak, Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Limnol Lab
  • ,
  • Dennis Trolle
  • U. Nihan Tavsanoglu, Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Limnol Lab
  • ,
  • A. Idil Cakiroglu, Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Limnol Lab
  • ,
  • Arda Ozen, Cankiri Karatekin Univ, Cankiri Karatekin University, Dept Forest Engn
  • ,
  • Erik Jeppesen
  • Meryem Beklioglu, Middle East Tech Univ, Kemal Kurdas Ecol Res & Training Stn

Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beysehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and drinking water. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume621
Pages (from-to)802-816
Number of pages15
ISSN0048-9697
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Apr 2018

    Research areas

  • Mediterranean, Ecosystem services, Cyanobacteria, Lake modeling, SHALLOW MEDITERRANEAN LAKES, HARMFUL CYANOBACTERIAL BLOOMS, ECOLOGICAL STATE, EUTROPHICATION MODEL, WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS, MESOCOSM EXPERIMENT, LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS, THERMAL STRUCTURE, NUTRIENT LOAD, SURFACE-WATER

See relations at Aarhus University Citationformats

ID: 124248863