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Erik Jeppesen

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

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  • Bryan M. Spears, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
  • ,
  • Martyn N. Futter, Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet
  • ,
  • Erik Jeppesen
  • Brian J. Huser, Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet
  • ,
  • Stephen Ives, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh University
  • ,
  • Thomas A. Davidson
  • Rita Adrian, Leibniz Institut fur Gewasserokologie Und Binnenfischerei, School of Business and Economics
  • ,
  • David G. Angeler, Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet
  • ,
  • Sarah J. Burthe, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Laurence Carvalho, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Francis Daunt, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Alena S. Gsell, School of Business and Economics
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  • Dag O. Hessen, Universitetet i Oslo
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  • Annette B.G. Janssen, Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • ,
  • Eleanor B. Mackay, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Linda May, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Heather Moorhouse, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
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  • Saara Olsen, Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), Chinese Academy of Sciences
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  • Martin Søndergaard, Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • ,
  • Helen Woods, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
  • ,
  • Stephen J. Thackeray, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Ecology and Evolution
Volume1
Pages (from-to)1616-1624
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Oct 2017

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