Department of Biology

Aarhus University Seal / Aarhus Universitets segl

Erik Jeppesen

A framework for testing models ability to project climate change and its impacts

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
Original languageEnglish
JournalClimatic Change
Volume122
Issue1-2
Pages (from-to)271-282
ISSN0165-0009
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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