Where have all the young wolves gone? Traffic and cryptic mortality create a wolf population sink in Denmark and northernmost Germany

TY - JOUR

T1 - Where have all the young wolves gone? Traffic and cryptic mortality create a wolf population sink in Denmark and northernmost Germany

AU - Sunde, Peter

AU - Collet, Sebastian

AU - Nowak, Carsten

AU - Thomsen, Philip Francis

AU - Hansen, Michael Møller

AU - Schulz, Björn

AU - Matzen, Jens

AU - Michler, Frank Uwe

AU - Vedel-Smith, Christina

AU - Olsen, Kent

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - Large carnivores are currently recolonizing Europe following legal protection, but increased mortality in landscapes highly impacted by humans may limit further population expansion. We analyzed mortality and disappearance rates of 35 wolves (of which three emigrated, nine died and 14 disappeared by 1 January 2020) by genetic monitoring in the heavily cultivated and densely populated Jutland peninsula (Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein, Germany). Annual traffic kill rate estimates ranged from 0.37 (95% CI: 0.11–0.85) to 0.78 (0.51–0.96) in the German part, equivalent to 0.08 (0.02–0.29)–0.25 (0.13–0.46) for the entire region, in the absence of any registered Danish roadkills. In Denmark, annual mortality rate estimates ranged from 0.46 (0.29–0.67) to 0.52 (0.35–0.71), predominantly from cryptic mortality. Despite successful reproductions, we conclude the region is a wolf population sink, primarily driven by cryptic mortality, most likely illegal killing. We hypothesize that frequent encounters between wolves and wolf-averse persecutors in cultivated landscapes may cause unsustainably high mortality rates despite the majority of hunters respecting protection laws.

AB - Large carnivores are currently recolonizing Europe following legal protection, but increased mortality in landscapes highly impacted by humans may limit further population expansion. We analyzed mortality and disappearance rates of 35 wolves (of which three emigrated, nine died and 14 disappeared by 1 January 2020) by genetic monitoring in the heavily cultivated and densely populated Jutland peninsula (Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein, Germany). Annual traffic kill rate estimates ranged from 0.37 (95% CI: 0.11–0.85) to 0.78 (0.51–0.96) in the German part, equivalent to 0.08 (0.02–0.29)–0.25 (0.13–0.46) for the entire region, in the absence of any registered Danish roadkills. In Denmark, annual mortality rate estimates ranged from 0.46 (0.29–0.67) to 0.52 (0.35–0.71), predominantly from cryptic mortality. Despite successful reproductions, we conclude the region is a wolf population sink, primarily driven by cryptic mortality, most likely illegal killing. We hypothesize that frequent encounters between wolves and wolf-averse persecutors in cultivated landscapes may cause unsustainably high mortality rates despite the majority of hunters respecting protection laws.

KW - Canis lupus

KW - Denmark

KW - genetic wildlife monitoring

KW - Germany

KW - human–wildlife conflict

KW - illegal killings

KW - large carnivores

KW - poaching

KW - recolonization

KW - roadkills

KW - source–sink

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85105802319

U2 - 10.1111/conl.12812

DO - 10.1111/conl.12812

M3 - Letter

AN - SCOPUS:85105802319

SN - 1755-263X

VL - 14

JO - Conservation Letters

JF - Conservation Letters

IS - 5

M1 - e12812

ER -