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Using Multiple Regression in Estimating (semi) VOC Emissions and Concentrations at the European Scale

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  • Afdeling for Systemanalyse

This paper proposes a simple method for estimating emissions and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in

water and air for organic chemicals that are used in household products and industrial processes. The method has

been tested on existing data for 63 organic high-production volume chemicals available in the European Chemicals

Bureau risk assessment reports (RARs). The method suggests a simple linear relationship between Henry's Law

constant, octanol-water coefficient, use and production volumes, and emissions and PECs on a regional scale in the

European Union. Emissions and PECs are a result of a complex interaction between chemical properties, production

and use patterns and geographical characteristics. A linear relationship cannot capture these complexities; however, it

may be applied at a cost-efficient screening level for suggesting critical chemicals that are candidates for an in-depth

risk assessment. Uncertainty measures are not available for the RAR data; however, uncertainties for the applied

regression models are given in the paper. Evaluation of the methods reveals that between 79% and 93% of all

emission and PEC estimates are within one order of magnitude of the reported RAR values. Bearing in mind that the

domain of the method comprises organic industrial high-production volume chemicals, four chemicals, prioritized in

the Water Framework Directive and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, were used to test the

method for estimated emissions and PECs, with corresponding uncertainty intervals, in air and water at regional EU


TidsskriftAtmospheric Pollution Research
Sider (fra-til)132-140
StatusUdgivet - 2010

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