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Time-varying effects of local weather on behavior and probability of breeding deferral in two Arctic-nesting goose populations

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  • Stephanie A Cunningham, Univ Missouri, University of Missouri System, University of Missouri Columbia, Dept Biochem
  • ,
  • Toryn L J Schafer, Univ Missouri, University of Missouri System, University of Missouri Columbia, Dept Biochem
  • ,
  • Christopher K Wikle, Univ Missouri, University of Missouri System, University of Missouri Columbia, Dept Biochem
  • ,
  • Jay A VonBank, Texas A&M University-Kingsville
  • ,
  • Bart M Ballard, Texas A&M University-Kingsville
  • ,
  • Lei Cao, Chinese Acad Sci, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grad Univ
  • ,
  • Stuart Bearhop, University of Exeter
  • ,
  • Anthony D Fox
  • Geoff M Hilton, Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust
  • ,
  • Alyn J Walsh, National Parks and Wildlife Service
  • ,
  • Larry R Griffin, Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust
  • ,
  • Mitch D Weegman, Univ Missouri, University of Missouri System, University of Missouri Columbia, Dept Biochem

Arctic-nesting geese face energetic challenges during spring migration, including ecological barriers and weather conditions (e.g., precipitation and temperature), which in long-lived species can lead to a trade-off to defer reproduction in favor of greater survival. We used GPS location and acceleration data collected from 35 greater white-fronted geese of the North American midcontinent and Greenland populations at spring migration stopovers, and novel applications of Bayesian dynamic linear models to test daily effects of minimum temperature and precipitation on energy expenditure (i.e., overall dynamic body acceleration, ODBA) and proportion of time spent feeding (PTF), then examined the daily and additive importance of ODBA and PTF on probability of breeding deferral using stochastic antecedent models. We expected distinct responses in behavior and probability of breeding deferral between and within populations due to differences in stopover area availability. Time-varying coefficients of weather conditions were variable between ODBA and PTF, and often did not show consistent patterns among birds, indicating plasticity in how individuals respond to conditions. An increase in antecedent ODBA was associated with a slightly increased probability of deferral in midcontinent geese but not Greenland geese. Probability of deferral decreased with increased PTF in both populations. We did not detect any differentially important time periods. These results suggest either that movements and behavior throughout spring migration do not explain breeding deferral or that ecological linkages between bird decisions during spring and subsequent breeding deferral were different between populations and across migration but occurred at different time scales than those we examined.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftOecologia
Vol/bind201
Sider (fra-til)369–383
ISSN0029-8549
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2 mar. 2023

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© 2022. The Author(s).

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