Thinking about the future: System dynamics and the process of electricity deregulation

Erik R. Larsen, Santiago Arango*

*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/proceedingBidrag til bog/antologiForskningpeer review

4 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

When an electricity sector in a country becomes deregulated, companies in the sector face an uncertain future. The transition from being a monopoly to a "commercial" company is often difficult and dangerous for the organization. In this situation, a company requires internal changes that are as big as those seen in any industry. The risk in the external environment is perceived as major, as competitors might enter the industry, customers might leave the company, and financial markets might make demands before money can be raised, etc., issues that were not part of the industry before deregulation. Furthermore, the regulation itself will most likely change significantly and become more confrontational. In this chapter, we discuss these three areas of risk that a deregulated company faces: regulatory, market, and organizational risks. We also discuss one of the methods that might help companies, System Dynamics, which with its focus on lags and feedback is well suited to help managers make sense of their new industry.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelEnergy Policy Modeling in the 21st Century
RedaktørerHassan Qudrat-Ullah
Antal sider14
ForlagSpringer
Publikationsdato2013
Sider17-30
ISBN (Trykt)9781461486053
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-1-4614-8606-0
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2013
Udgivet eksterntJa
NavnUnderstanding Complex Systems
ISSN1860-0832

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