TY - JOUR
T1 - The value of change
T2 - A scenario assessment of the effects of bioeconomy driven land use change on ecosystem service provision
AU - Immerzeel, Bart
AU - Vermaat, Jan E.
AU - Collentine, Dennis
AU - Juutinen, Artti
AU - Kronvang, Brian
AU - Skarbøvik, Eva
AU - Vodder Carstensen, Mette
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper is a contribution from the Nordic Centre of Excellence BIOWATER, funded by Nordforsk under project number 82263. We would like to thank everyone who gave of their time, knowledge and datasets to shape the scenarios into plausible pathways. In particular we would like to thank Martyn Futter at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Joy Bhattacharjee at the University of Oulu, Gunnhild Riise and Per Kristian Rørstad at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Anne Lyche Solheim at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research and Anne Tolvanen at the Natural Resources Institute Finland. We also want to give warm thanks to all participants of the BIOWATER stakeholder workshops for helping us ground our scenarios in reality. Maps in this paper were created using ArcGIS® software by Esri. ArcGIS® and ArcMap™ are the intellectual property of Esri and are used herein under license. Copyright © Esri. All rights reserved.
Funding Information:
This paper is a contribution from the Nordic Centre of Excellence BIOWATER, funded by Nordforsk under project number 82263. We would like to thank everyone who gave of their time, knowledge and datasets to shape the scenarios into plausible pathways. In particular we would like to thank Martyn Futter at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Joy Bhattacharjee at the University of Oulu, Gunnhild Riise and Per Kristian Rørstad at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Anne Lyche Solheim at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research and Anne Tolvanen at the Natural Resources Institute Finland. We also want to give warm thanks to all participants of the BIOWATER stakeholder workshops for helping us ground our scenarios in reality. Maps in this paper were created using ArcGIS® software by Esri. ArcGIS® and ArcMap™ are the intellectual property of Esri and are used herein under license. Copyright © Esri. All rights reserved.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/4
Y1 - 2023/4
N2 - Policy makers in Nordic countries envisage a developing bioeconomy as an important element in the transition towards a fossil-energy-free future. However, although the shape of such a bioeconomy is unclear, impacts on land use and land management are likely. To analyse the possible impact on ecosystem services value of this transition, we used five scenarios that describe possible socio-economic environments in the four Nordic countries in the year 2050. These five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs) have been labelled in brief as: ‘sustainability first’, ‘conventional first’, ‘self-sufficiency first’, ‘city first’ and ‘growth first’. In this paper, we adapted an existing integrating framework of ecosystem service delivery to accommodate these NBPs and estimated economic value of all services for six study catchments across the Nordic countries: Odense (DK), Simojoki (FI), Haldenvassdraget (NO), Orrevassdraget (NO), Sävjaån (SE) and Vindelälven (SE). We articulated the scenario storylines to a set of numerical attributes per NBP using input from secondary data sources and interviews with stakeholder representatives and local experts. We made land use change spatially explicit based on the catchment's physical characteristics and used links between catchment attributes and ecosystem services flow to estimate annual ecosystem services generation in biophysical and monetary units. Outcomes suggest: the value of active recreation increases more in 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' than in other scenarios; variations in total value are largest among catchments under 'city first'; the overall rank order of ecosystem services value within catchments largely remains unchanged under all NBPs. We conclude that outdoor recreation contributes a high benefit to society that is likely not adequately considered relative to provisioning services in current decision making, and that these benefits appear sensitive to how a bioeconomy will develop. Overall, the estimated summed value delivered in these catchments is highest under the 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' scenarios.
AB - Policy makers in Nordic countries envisage a developing bioeconomy as an important element in the transition towards a fossil-energy-free future. However, although the shape of such a bioeconomy is unclear, impacts on land use and land management are likely. To analyse the possible impact on ecosystem services value of this transition, we used five scenarios that describe possible socio-economic environments in the four Nordic countries in the year 2050. These five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs) have been labelled in brief as: ‘sustainability first’, ‘conventional first’, ‘self-sufficiency first’, ‘city first’ and ‘growth first’. In this paper, we adapted an existing integrating framework of ecosystem service delivery to accommodate these NBPs and estimated economic value of all services for six study catchments across the Nordic countries: Odense (DK), Simojoki (FI), Haldenvassdraget (NO), Orrevassdraget (NO), Sävjaån (SE) and Vindelälven (SE). We articulated the scenario storylines to a set of numerical attributes per NBP using input from secondary data sources and interviews with stakeholder representatives and local experts. We made land use change spatially explicit based on the catchment's physical characteristics and used links between catchment attributes and ecosystem services flow to estimate annual ecosystem services generation in biophysical and monetary units. Outcomes suggest: the value of active recreation increases more in 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' than in other scenarios; variations in total value are largest among catchments under 'city first'; the overall rank order of ecosystem services value within catchments largely remains unchanged under all NBPs. We conclude that outdoor recreation contributes a high benefit to society that is likely not adequately considered relative to provisioning services in current decision making, and that these benefits appear sensitive to how a bioeconomy will develop. Overall, the estimated summed value delivered in these catchments is highest under the 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' scenarios.
KW - Final ecosystem services
KW - Nordic bioresource exploitation
KW - Recreational preferences
KW - Shared socio-economic pathways
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146215946&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106902
DO - 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106902
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85146215946
SN - 0341-8162
VL - 223
JO - Catena
JF - Catena
M1 - 106902
ER -