THE SETTLEMENT DATE OF ICELAND REVISITED: EVALUATION OF C-14 DATES FROM SITES OF EARLY SETTLERS IN ICELAND BY BAYESIAN STATISTICS

TY - JOUR

T1 - THE SETTLEMENT DATE OF ICELAND REVISITED

T2 - EVALUATION OF C-14 DATES FROM SITES OF EARLY SETTLERS IN ICELAND BY BAYESIAN STATISTICS

AU - Sveinbjornsdottir, Arny E.

AU - Ramsey, Christopher Bronk

AU - Heinemeier, Jan

PY - 2016/6

Y1 - 2016/6

N2 - The settlement time of Iceland has been debated for years as radiocarbon dates of bulk wood samples have been interpreted to set a timing 150-200 yr earlier than indicated by tephrochronology (later than AD 871 +/- 2) and the Sagas (AD 874). This early date is also in conflict with the dating results on extensive series of short-lived material such as grain and domestic animal and human bone remains of early settlers. The old-wood effect for the charcoal and bulk wood samples has been suggested to explain this controversy. This study uses a Bayesian model, implemented in the OxCal program, to show that the charcoal data combined with short-lived material (grain/bone) suggest ages anywhere in the interval AD 854-922 (95.4% probability), indicating that the available C-14 data cannot be taken as compelling evidence that there was a settlement any earlier than AD 922. The Bayesian model shows that the observed exponential distribution of the excess age of the bulk wood samples is exactly as expected if there was an old-wood effect evident in the samples.

AB - The settlement time of Iceland has been debated for years as radiocarbon dates of bulk wood samples have been interpreted to set a timing 150-200 yr earlier than indicated by tephrochronology (later than AD 871 +/- 2) and the Sagas (AD 874). This early date is also in conflict with the dating results on extensive series of short-lived material such as grain and domestic animal and human bone remains of early settlers. The old-wood effect for the charcoal and bulk wood samples has been suggested to explain this controversy. This study uses a Bayesian model, implemented in the OxCal program, to show that the charcoal data combined with short-lived material (grain/bone) suggest ages anywhere in the interval AD 854-922 (95.4% probability), indicating that the available C-14 data cannot be taken as compelling evidence that there was a settlement any earlier than AD 922. The Bayesian model shows that the observed exponential distribution of the excess age of the bulk wood samples is exactly as expected if there was an old-wood effect evident in the samples.

KW - inbuilt age

KW - Iceland settlement

KW - Bayesian modeling

KW - NORTHERN ICELAND

KW - RADIOCARBON

KW - GREENLAND

KW - BONES

KW - AGE

U2 - 10.1017/RDC.2016.2

DO - 10.1017/RDC.2016.2

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0033-8222

VL - 58

SP - 235

EP - 245

JO - Radiocarbon: An International Journal of Cosmogenic Isotope Research

JF - Radiocarbon: An International Journal of Cosmogenic Isotope Research

IS - 2

ER -