The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

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  • Steve Bryson, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Michelle Kunimoto, University of British Columbia
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  • Ravi K. Kopparapu, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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  • Jeffrey L. Coughlin, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • William J. Borucki, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • David Koch, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Victor Silva Aguirre
  • Christopher Allen, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Geert Barentsen, Bay Area Environmental Research Institute
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  • Natalie M. Batalha, University of California at Santa Cruz
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  • Travis Berger, University of Hawaii at Manoa
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  • Alan Boss, Carnegie Institution of Washington
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  • Lars A. Buchhave, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
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  • Christopher J. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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  • Douglas A. Caldwell, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Jennifer R. Campbell, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Joseph Catanzarite, Cross-Entropy Consulting
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  • Hema Chandrasekaran, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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  • William J. Chaplin, University of Birmingham
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  • Jessie L. Christiansen, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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  • J. rgen Christensen-Dalsgaard, Aarhus Universitet
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  • David R. Ciardi, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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  • Bruce D. Clarke, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • William D. Cochran, University of Texas at Austin
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  • Jessie L. Dotson, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Laurance R. Doyle, SETI Institute
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  • Eduardo Seperuelo Duarte, NASA Ames Research Center, Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro
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  • Edward W. Dunham, Lowell Observatory
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  • Andrea K. Dupree, Harvard University
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  • Michael Endl, University of Texas at Austin
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  • James L. Fanson, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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  • Eric B. Ford, Pennsylvania State University
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  • Maura Fujieh, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Thomas N. Gautier, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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  • John C. Geary, Harvard University
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  • Ronald L. Gilliland, Space Telescope Science Institute
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  • Forrest R. Girouard, NASA Ames Research Center, Orbital Sciences Corporation
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  • Alan Gould, University of California at Berkeley
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  • Michael R. Haas, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Christopher E. Henze, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Matthew J. Holman, Harvard University
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  • Andrew W. Howard, California Institute of Technology
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  • Steve B. Howell, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Daniel Huber, University of Hawaii
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  • Roger C. Hunter, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Jon M. Jenkins, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Hans Kjeldsen
  • Jeffery Kolodziejczak, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
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  • Kipp Larson, Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.
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  • David W. Latham, Harvard University
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  • Jie Li, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Savita Mathur, Instituto Astrofisico de Canarias, University of La Laguna
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  • S. ren Meibom, Harvard University
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  • Chris Middour, Millennium Engineering and Integration Services
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  • Robert L. Morris, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Timothy D. Morton, University of Southern California
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  • Fergal Mullally, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Susan E. Mullally, Space Telescope Science Institute
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  • David Pletcher, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Andrej Prsa, Villanova University
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  • Samuel N. Quinn, Harvard University
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  • Elisa V. Quintana, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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  • Darin Ragozzine, Brigham Young University
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  • Solange V. Ramirez, Carnegie Institution of Washington
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  • Dwight T. Sanderfer, NASA Ames Research Center, Jacobs Engineering
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  • Dimitar Sasselov, Harvard University
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  • Shawn E. Seader, Rincon Research Corporation
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  • Megan Shabram, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Avi Shporer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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  • Jeffrey C. Smith, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Jason H. Steffen, University of Nevada Las Vegas
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  • Martin Still, National Science Foundation
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  • Guillermo Torres, Harvard University
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  • John Troeltzsch, Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.
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  • Joseph D. Twicken, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Akm Kamal Uddin, Millennium Engineering and Integration Services
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  • Jeffrey E. Van Cleve, Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.
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  • Janice Voss, NASA Ames Research Center
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  • Lauren M. Weiss, University of Hawaii at Manoa
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  • William F. Welsh, San Diego State University
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  • Bill Wohler, NASA Ames Research Center, SETI Institute
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  • Khadeejah A. Zamudio, NASA Ames Research Center, KBRwyle

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37-0.21+0.48 (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60-0.36+0.90 planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58-0.33+0.73 and 0.88-0.51+1.28 planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer36
TidsskriftAstronomical Journal
Vol/bind161
Nummer1
Antal sider32
ISSN0004-6256
DOI
StatusUdgivet - jan. 2021

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