The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

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  • Thorsten B. H. Reusch, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Tyskland
  • Jan Dierking, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Tyskland
  • Helen C. Andersson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
  • ,
  • Erik Bonsdorff, Abo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
  • ,
  • Jacob Carstensen
  • Michele Casini, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden., Sverige
  • Mikolaj Czajkowski, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Polen
  • Berit Hasler
  • Hinsby Klaus, GEUS, Copenhagen, Danmark
  • Kari Hyytiainen, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland., Finland
  • Kerstin Johannesson, University of Gothenburg, Tjärnö Marine Station, Strömstad, Sweden, Sverige
  • Seifeddine Jomaa, Department of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ Magdeburg, Germany, Tyskland
  • Veijo Jormalainen, University of Turku, Finland, Finland
  • Harri Kuosa, University of Helsinki, Finland
  • Sara Kurland, Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden., Sverige
  • Linda Laikre, Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden., Sverige
  • Brian R. McKenzie, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark, Danmark
  • Piotr Magonski, National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Gdynia, Poland., Polen
  • Frank Melzner, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Tyskland
  • Daniel Oesterwind, Thuenen Institute–Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany, Tyskland
  • Jens Christian Refsgaard, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Danmark
  • Annica Sandström, Luleå University of Technology, Sverige
  • Gerald Schwarz, Thuenen Institute of Farm Economics, Braunschweig, Germany, Tyskland
  • Karin Tonderski, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden, Sverige
  • Monika Winder, Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Sverige
  • Marianne Zandersen
Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.
TidsskriftScience Advances
Antal sider16
StatusUdgivet - 9 maj 2018

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