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Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

DOI

  • Marta Victoria
  • Elisabeth Zeyen, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Technical University of Berlin
    • ,
  • Tom Brown, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Technical University of Berlin

Europe's contribution to global warming will be determined by the cumulative emissions until climate neutrality is achieved. Here, we investigate alternative transition paths under different carbon budgets. We use PyPSA-Eur-Sec, an open model of the sector-coupled European energy system with high spatial and temporal resolution. All the paths entail similar technological transformations, but the timing of the scale-up of important technologies like electrolysis, carbon capture, and hydrogen network differs. Solar PV and onshore and offshore wind become the cornerstone of a net-zero energy system, enabling the decarbonization of other sectors via direct electrification (heat pumps and electric vehicles) or indirect electrification (using synthetic fuels). For a social cost of carbon (SCC) of 120€/tCO2, transition paths under 1.5 and 1.6°C budgets are, respectively, 8% and 1% more expensive than the 2°C budget because building assets earlier costs more. The 1.5°C budget is cost optimal if a SCC of at least 300€/tCO2 is considered.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftJoule
Vol/bind6
Nummer5
Sider (fra-til)1066-1086
Antal sider21
ISSN2542-4785
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 18 maj 2022

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
M.V. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program (AURORA project under grant agreement No. 101036418 ). T.B. and E.Z. acknowledge funding from the Helmholtz Association under grant no. VH-NG-1352 .

Funding Information:
M.V. acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (AURORA project under grant agreement No. 101036418). T.B. and E.Z. acknowledge funding from the Helmholtz Association under grant no. VH-NG-1352. Conceptualization, formal analysis, data curation, software, visualization, writing (original draft), M.V.; conceptualization, data curation, software, writing (review and editing), T.B. and E.Z. The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Inc.

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