Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature

Davide Cammarano; Sajad Jamshidi; Gerrit Hoogenboom; Alex C. Ruane; Dev Niyogi; Domenico Ronga

doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00521-y

Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature

Davide Cammarano^*, Sajad Jamshidi, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Alex C. Ruane, Dev Niyogi, Domenico Ronga

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

1 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

The global production of processing tomatoes is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change could have a notable impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the main producing countries (the United States, Italy and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050 compared with the baseline period of 1980–2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a projected increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain current levels of processing tomato production due to water resource constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Nature Food
Vol/bind	3
Nummer	6
Sider (fra-til)	437-444
Antal sider	8
ISSN	2662-1355
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00521-y
Status	Udgivet - jun. 2022

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title = "Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature",

abstract = "The global production of processing tomatoes is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change could have a notable impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the main producing countries (the United States, Italy and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050 compared with the baseline period of 1980–2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a projected increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain current levels of processing tomato production due to water resource constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.",

author = "Davide Cammarano and Sajad Jamshidi and Gerrit Hoogenboom and Ruane, {Alex C.} and Dev Niyogi and Domenico Ronga",

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AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - Jamshidi, Sajad

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Ruane, Alex C.

AU - Niyogi, Dev

AU - Ronga, Domenico

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AB - The global production of processing tomatoes is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change could have a notable impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the main producing countries (the United States, Italy and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050 compared with the baseline period of 1980–2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a projected increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain current levels of processing tomato production due to water resource constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

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Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature

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