Abstract
Process tracing is a theory-based method uniquely suited to assessing an
intervention’s contribution to outcomes, especially for interventions that are
difficult to quantify, such as knowledge work or institution building. Because it
relies on iteratively developing and empirically testing granular theories of change
with a focus on processes, process tracing enhances the ability of evaluators to
establish strong causal links between interventions and outcomes. Furthermore,
process tracing emphasizes the explicit connections between actors, their actions,
and resulting behavioral changes, offering two key advantages to evaluators. First,
it provides a transparent framework for presenting and evaluating the strength
of the evidence gathered. Second, it enables evaluators to derive practical lessons
more easily.
The robustness of process-tracing findings, however, critically depends on how
well theory and empirical observables come together. This paper explores the
potential of process tracing in evaluation, providing a step-by-step guide for
its implementation and discussing its advantages and limitations through an
examination of a recent application of the method in an Independent Evaluation
Group evaluation. The case examines the impact of the World Bank’s knowledge
and policy work in a middle-income country. Although the World Bank’s impact
comes as much from data, analytics, and advisory services as it does from the
financing it provides, impacts from the former tend to be understudied and
underevaluated, in part because of the lack of awareness of, and use of, process
tracing and other methods.
intervention’s contribution to outcomes, especially for interventions that are
difficult to quantify, such as knowledge work or institution building. Because it
relies on iteratively developing and empirically testing granular theories of change
with a focus on processes, process tracing enhances the ability of evaluators to
establish strong causal links between interventions and outcomes. Furthermore,
process tracing emphasizes the explicit connections between actors, their actions,
and resulting behavioral changes, offering two key advantages to evaluators. First,
it provides a transparent framework for presenting and evaluating the strength
of the evidence gathered. Second, it enables evaluators to derive practical lessons
more easily.
The robustness of process-tracing findings, however, critically depends on how
well theory and empirical observables come together. This paper explores the
potential of process tracing in evaluation, providing a step-by-step guide for
its implementation and discussing its advantages and limitations through an
examination of a recent application of the method in an Independent Evaluation
Group evaluation. The case examines the impact of the World Bank’s knowledge
and policy work in a middle-income country. Although the World Bank’s impact
comes as much from data, analytics, and advisory services as it does from the
financing it provides, impacts from the former tend to be understudied and
underevaluated, in part because of the lack of awareness of, and use of, process
tracing and other methods.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Udgiver | World Bank Publications |
| Status | Udgivet - 2025 |