Pre-War Experimental Evidence that Putin’s Propaganda Elicited Strong Support for Military Invasion Among Russians

TY - JOUR

T1 - Pre-War Experimental Evidence that Putin’s Propaganda Elicited Strong Support for Military Invasion Among Russians

AU - Tolstrup, Jakob

AU - Krishnarajan, Suthan

PY - 2023/11

Y1 - 2023/11

N2 - In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The Putin regime used extensive and aggressive propaganda to win public support for the war. But can this propaganda really convince ordinary people? Using the unique timing of a survey experiment fielded a year before the invasion, we provide the first experimental evidence of the effectiveness of this propaganda among Russian citizens. Vignette treatments containing information on threats similar to stories running in Russian media around the time of the invasion in combination with statements from President Putin show that propaganda was highly effective. Even mild treatments were enough to increase support for military aggression against neighboring countries among Russians from around 8 to 48% and up to 59% among Putin’s supporters. Thus, the Russian president had good reason to believe that he could control popular opinion when he decided to launch a war against Ukraine.

AB - In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The Putin regime used extensive and aggressive propaganda to win public support for the war. But can this propaganda really convince ordinary people? Using the unique timing of a survey experiment fielded a year before the invasion, we provide the first experimental evidence of the effectiveness of this propaganda among Russian citizens. Vignette treatments containing information on threats similar to stories running in Russian media around the time of the invasion in combination with statements from President Putin show that propaganda was highly effective. Even mild treatments were enough to increase support for military aggression against neighboring countries among Russians from around 8 to 48% and up to 59% among Putin’s supporters. Thus, the Russian president had good reason to believe that he could control popular opinion when he decided to launch a war against Ukraine.

KW - Aggression

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Military Personnel

KW - Propaganda

KW - Russia

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85176425187&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adg1199

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adg1199

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37948515

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 9

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

IS - 45

M1 - eadg1199

ER -