Potential changes in the extent of suitable habitats for geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Anthropocene

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential changes in the extent of suitable habitats for geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Anthropocene

AU - Ahmed, Ahmed Seid

AU - Chala, Desalegn

AU - Kufa, Chala Adugna

AU - Atickem, Anagaw

AU - Bekele, Afework

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

AU - Zinner, Dietmar

PY - 2023/12

Y1 - 2023/12

N2 - Background: Climate change coupled with other anthropogenic pressures may affect the extent of suitable habitat for species and thus their distributions. This is particularly true for species occupying high-altitude habitats such as the gelada (Theropithecus gelada) of the Ethiopian highlands. To explore the impact of climate change on species distributions, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used. Here we model the current and future extent of sutibale habitat for geladas. Our modelling was based on 285 presence locations of geladas, covering their complete current distribution. We used different techniques to generate pseudoabsence datasets, MaxEnt model complexities, and cut-off thresholds to map the potential distribution of gelada under current and future climates (2050 and 2070). We assembled maps from these techniques to produce a final composite map. We also evaluated the change in the topographic features of gelada over the past 200 years by comparing the topography in current and historical settings. Results: All model runs had high performances, AUC = 0.87–0.96. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat predicted with high certainty was 90,891 km2, but it decreased remarkably under future climates, -36% by 2050 and − 52% by 2070. However, since the habitats of geladas already extend to mountaintop grasslands, no remarkable range shifts across elevation gradients were predicted under future climates. Conclusions: Our findings indicated that climate change most likely results in a loss of suitable habitat for geladas, particularly south of the Rift Valley. Currently geladas are confined to higher altitudes and steep slopes compared to historical sightings, probably qualifying geladas as refugee species. The difference in topography is potentially associated with anthropogenic pressures that drove niche truncation to higher altitudes, undermining the climatic and topographic niche our models predicted. We recommend protecting the current habitats of geladas even when they are forecasted to become climatically unsuitable in the future, in particular for the population south of the Rift Valley.

AB - Background: Climate change coupled with other anthropogenic pressures may affect the extent of suitable habitat for species and thus their distributions. This is particularly true for species occupying high-altitude habitats such as the gelada (Theropithecus gelada) of the Ethiopian highlands. To explore the impact of climate change on species distributions, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used. Here we model the current and future extent of sutibale habitat for geladas. Our modelling was based on 285 presence locations of geladas, covering their complete current distribution. We used different techniques to generate pseudoabsence datasets, MaxEnt model complexities, and cut-off thresholds to map the potential distribution of gelada under current and future climates (2050 and 2070). We assembled maps from these techniques to produce a final composite map. We also evaluated the change in the topographic features of gelada over the past 200 years by comparing the topography in current and historical settings. Results: All model runs had high performances, AUC = 0.87–0.96. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat predicted with high certainty was 90,891 km2, but it decreased remarkably under future climates, -36% by 2050 and − 52% by 2070. However, since the habitats of geladas already extend to mountaintop grasslands, no remarkable range shifts across elevation gradients were predicted under future climates. Conclusions: Our findings indicated that climate change most likely results in a loss of suitable habitat for geladas, particularly south of the Rift Valley. Currently geladas are confined to higher altitudes and steep slopes compared to historical sightings, probably qualifying geladas as refugee species. The difference in topography is potentially associated with anthropogenic pressures that drove niche truncation to higher altitudes, undermining the climatic and topographic niche our models predicted. We recommend protecting the current habitats of geladas even when they are forecasted to become climatically unsuitable in the future, in particular for the population south of the Rift Valley.

KW - Climate change

KW - Ethiopia

KW - Habitat suitability modelling

KW - High altitude primates

KW - MaxEnt

KW - Animals

KW - Theropithecus

KW - Ecosystem

KW - Environment

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85175786742

U2 - 10.1186/s12862-023-02173-3

DO - 10.1186/s12862-023-02173-3

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37919657

AN - SCOPUS:85175786742

SN - 2730-7182

VL - 23

JO - BMC Ecology and Evolution

JF - BMC Ecology and Evolution

IS - 1

M1 - 65

ER -