Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

Jacob Nabe-Nielsen; Caitlin Kim Frankish; Cara Alyse Gallagher; Volker Grimm

Abstract

Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Publikationsdato	10 dec. 2024
Status	Accepteret/In press - 10 dec. 2024
Begivenhed	British Ecological Society Annual Meeting - Liverpool, Storbritannien Varighed: 10 dec. 2024 → 13 dec. 2024 https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/events/bes-annual-meeting-2024/

Konference

Konference	British Ecological Society Annual Meeting
Land/Område	Storbritannien
By	Liverpool
Periode	10/12/2024 → 13/12/2024
Internetadresse	https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/events/bes-annual-meeting-2024/

Citationsformater

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title = "Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models",

abstract = "Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.",

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note = "British Ecological Society Annual Meeting, BES Annual Meeting ; Conference date: 10-12-2024 Through 13-12-2024",

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T1 - Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

AU - Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob

AU - Frankish, Caitlin Kim

AU - Gallagher, Cara Alyse

AU - Grimm, Volker

PY - 2024/12/10

Y1 - 2024/12/10

N2 - Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

AB - Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

KW - Agent-based modelling

KW - Process-based models

KW - mechanistic models

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

T2 - British Ecological Society Annual Meeting

Y2 - 10 December 2024 through 13 December 2024

ER -

Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

Abstract

Konference

Fingeraftryk

Citationsformater