TY - JOUR
T1 - Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction
T2 - the SweDen risk score
AU - Rylance, Rebecca Tremain
AU - Wagner, Philippe
AU - Olesen, Kevin K W
AU - Carlson, Jonas
AU - Alfredsson, Joakim
AU - Jernberg, Tomas
AU - Leosdottir, Margret
AU - Johansson, Pelle
AU - Vasko, Peter
AU - Maeng, Michael
AU - Mohammed, Moman Aladdin
AU - Erlinge, David
N1 - © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
PY - 2022/12/2
Y1 - 2022/12/2
N2 - OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).METHODS: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.RESULTS: The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.CONCLUSIONS: The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.
AB - OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).METHODS: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.RESULTS: The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.CONCLUSIONS: The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.
KW - Heart Failure
KW - Humans
KW - Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use
KW - Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Sweden/epidemiology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85143897156&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143
DO - 10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36460308
SN - 2053-3624
VL - 9
JO - Open Heart
JF - Open Heart
IS - 2
M1 - e002143
ER -