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On opportunities and threats to conserve the phylogenetic diversity of Neotropical palms

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DOI

  • Santiago José Elías Velazco, Universidad Nacional de Misiones‐CONICET
  • ,
  • Jean Christian Svenning
  • Bruno R. Ribeiro, Universidade Federal de Goias
  • ,
  • Livia Maira Orlandi Laureto, Universidade Federal de Goias

Aim: Palms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neotropics. Here, we estimated the impacts of future climate change on phylogenetic diversity (PD) of Neotropical palms under varying climatic and dispersal scenarios, assessed the effectiveness of the established network of protected areas (PAs) for conserving palms PD today and in 2070, and identified priority areas for the conservation of palm species and their evolutionary history in the face of climate change. Location: Neotropics. Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of 367 species in the present and for 2070 based on two greenhouse gas emission and two dispersal scenarios. We calculated Faith's PD within each five arc-minute grid cell to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs relative to null models and used phylogenetic spatial prioritisation analysis to detect priority areas. Results: We found that even under the most optimistic climatic and dispersal scenarios, the established network of PAs performed poorly in safeguarding palms PD under both current conditions and those projected for 2070. Significant losses in PD inside PAs are expected under future climate conditions, especially if species are unable to disperse to suitable areas. Nevertheless, a modest and strategic increase in the number of PAs could considerably improve the protection of palms PD in the present and 2070. Main conclusions: The PD of Neotropical palms is poorly represented within the established network of PAs, at both present and in 2070. A higher realised dispersal rates would diminish PD losses inside the network of PAs. The conservation of palm PD can be improved through the expansion of PAs in strategic regions such as the upper portion of the Amazon Basin, Tropical Andes and Mesoamerica.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftDiversity and Distributions
Vol/bind27
Nummer3
Sider (fra-til)512-523
Antal sider12
ISSN1366-9516
DOI
StatusUdgivet - mar. 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
SJEV thanks CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) for the post‐doctoral scholarship. JCS considers this work a contribution to his VILLUM Investigator project ‘Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World' funded by VILLUM FONDEN (grant 16549) and his TREECHANGE supported by the Danish Council for Independent Research | Natural Sciences (grant 6108‐00078B). BRR thanks to CAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior) for financial support—Finance Code 001. LMOL is grateful to CAPES for the post‐doctoral scholarship (project number 88887.1459152017‐00). Authors acknowledge Laura Pollock for sharing the R codes used for performing the prioritisation analyses.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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