National case fatality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Önder Ergönül, Koc University, ESCMID
  • ,
  • Merve Akyol, Koc University
  • ,
  • Cem Tanrıöver, Koc University
  • ,
  • Henning Tiemeier, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
  • ,
  • Eskild Petersen
  • Nicola Petrosillo, ESCMID, IRCCS Istituto per le Malattie Infettive Lazzaro Spallanzani - Roma
  • ,
  • Mehmet Gönen, Koc University

Objectives: The case fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) varies significantly between countries. We aimed to describe the associations between health indicators and the national CFRs of COVID-19. Methods: We identified for each country health indicators potentially associated with the national CFRs of COVID-19. We extracted data for 18 variables from international administrative data sources for 34 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We excluded the collinear variables and examined the 16 variables in multivariable analysis. A dynamic web-based model was developed to analyse and display the associations for the CFRs of COVID-19. We followed the Guideline for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Results: In multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with the increased CFRs were percentage of obesity in ages >18 years (β = 3.26; 95%CI = 1.20, 5.33; p 0.003), tuberculosis incidence (β = 3.15; 95%CI = 1.09, 5.22; p 0.004), duration (days) since first death due to COVID-19 (β = 2.89; 95%CI = 0.83, 4.96; p 0.008), and median age (β = 2.83; 95%CI = 0.76, 4.89; p 0.009). The COVID-19 test rate (β = –3.54; 95%CI = –5.60, –1.47; p 0.002), hospital bed density (β = –2.47; 95%CI = –4.54, –0.41; p 0.021), and rural population ratio (β = –2.19; 95%CI = –4.25, –0.13; p 0.039) decreased the CFR. Conclusions: The pandemic hits population-dense cities. Available hospital beds should be increased. Test capacity should be increased to enable more effective diagnostic tests. Older patients and patients with obesity and their caregivers should be warned about a potentially increased risk.

TidsskriftClinical Microbiology and Infection
Sider (fra-til)118-124
Antal sider7
StatusUdgivet - jan. 2021

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases

Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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