Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

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  • M Clairbaux, CEFE CNRS
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  • W Cheung, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia
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  • P Mathewson, Department of Psychiatry, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Department of Neurology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
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  • W Porter, Department of Psychiatry, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Department of Neurology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
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  • N Courbin, CEFE CNRS
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  • J Fort, Univ La Rochelle, University of La Rochelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE), UMR 7266, Littoral Environm & Soc LIENSs
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  • H Strøm, Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Ctr
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  • B Moe, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • P Fauchald, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • S Descamps, Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Ctr
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  • H Helgason, Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Ctr
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  • V S Bråthen, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • B Merkel, Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Ctr
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  • T Anker-Nilssen, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • I S Bringsvor, Norwegian Ornithological Society
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  • O Chastel, Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC)
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  • S Christensen-Dalsgaard, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • J Danielsen, Faroe Marine Research Institute, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands.
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  • F Daunt, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
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  • N Dehnhard, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • K E Erikstad, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • A Ezhov, Murmansk Marine Biological Institute KSC RAS
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  • M Gavrilo, Association Maritime Heritage
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  • Y Krasnov, Murmansk Marine Biological Institute KSC RAS
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  • M Langset, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • S H Lorentsen, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • M Newell, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
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  • B Olsen, Faroe Marine Research Institute, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands.
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  • T K Reiertsen, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • G Systad, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
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  • T L Thórarinsson, Northeast Iceland Nature Research Centre
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  • M Baran, Univ New Brunswick, University of New Brunswick, Dept Biol Sci
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  • T Diamond, Univ New Brunswick, University of New Brunswick, Dept Biol Sci
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  • A L Fayet, Department of Physiology, Anatomy & Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; University of Oxford Centre for Clinical Magnetic Resonance Research, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
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  • M G Fitzsimmons, Wildlife Research Division
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  • M Frederiksen
  • H G Gilchrist, National Wildlife Research Centre
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  • T Guilford, Department of Physiology, Anatomy & Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; University of Oxford Centre for Clinical Magnetic Resonance Research, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
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  • N P Huffeldt
  • M Jessopp, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE CORK - NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND, CORK
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  • K L Johansen
  • A L Kouwenberg, Bird Studies Canada
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  • J F Linnebjerg
  • L McFarlane Tranquilla, Bird Studies Canada
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  • M Mallory, Acadia Univ, Acadia University, Dept Biol
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  • F R Merkel
  • W Montevecchi, Mem Univ Newfoundland, Memorial University Newfoundland, Dept Phys & Phys Oceanog
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  • A Mosbech
  • A Petersen, Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland
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  • D Grémillet, Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC)

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives, will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine protected areas in a changing ocean.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftGlobal Change Biology
Vol/bind27
Nummer7
Sider (fra-til)1457-1469
Antal sider13
ISSN1354-1013
DOI
StatusUdgivet - apr. 2021

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