Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

M Clairbaux; W Cheung; P Mathewson; W Porter; N Courbin; J Fort; H Strøm; B Moe; P Fauchald; S Descamps; H Helgason; V S Bråthen; B Merkel; T Anker-Nilssen; I S Bringsvor; O Chastel; S Christensen-Dalsgaard; J Danielsen; F Daunt; N Dehnhard; K E Erikstad; A Ezhov; M Gavrilo; Y Krasnov; M Langset; S H Lorentsen; M Newell; B Olsen; T K Reiertsen; G Systad; T L Thórarinsson; M Baran; T Diamond; A L Fayet; M G Fitzsimmons; M Frederiksen; H G Gilchrist; T Guilford; N P Huffeldt; M Jessopp; K L Johansen; A L Kouwenberg; J F Linnebjerg; L McFarlane Tranquilla; M Mallory; F R Merkel; W Montevecchi; A Mosbech; A Petersen; D Grémillet

doi:10.1111/gcb.15497

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

M Clairbaux^*, W Cheung, P Mathewson, W Porter, N Courbin, J Fort, H Strøm, B Moe, P Fauchald, S Descamps, H Helgason, V S Bråthen, B Merkel, T Anker-Nilssen, I S Bringsvor, O Chastel, S Christensen-Dalsgaard, J Danielsen, F Daunt, N DehnhardK E Erikstad, A Ezhov, M Gavrilo, Y Krasnov, M Langset, S H Lorentsen, M Newell, B Olsen, T K Reiertsen, G Systad, T L Thórarinsson, M Baran, T Diamond, A L Fayet, M G Fitzsimmons, M Frederiksen, H G Gilchrist, T Guilford, N P Huffeldt, M Jessopp, K L Johansen, A L Kouwenberg, J F Linnebjerg, L McFarlane Tranquilla, M Mallory, F R Merkel, W Montevecchi, A Mosbech, A Petersen, D Grémillet

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

17 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives, will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine protected areas in a changing ocean.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Global Change Biology
Vol/bind	27
Nummer	7
Sider (fra-til)	1457-1469
Antal sider	13
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497
Status	Udgivet - apr. 2021

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10.1111/gcb.15497

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03088572/file/CGCB27_2021.pdfLicens: CC BY

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Clairbaux, M., Cheung, W., Mathewson, P., Porter, W., Courbin, N., Fort, J., Strøm, H., Moe, B., Fauchald, P., Descamps, S., Helgason, H., Bråthen, V. S., Merkel, B., Anker-Nilssen, T., Bringsvor, I. S., Chastel, O., Christensen-Dalsgaard, S., Danielsen, J., Daunt, F., ... Grémillet, D. (2021). Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology, 27(7), 1457-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

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title = "Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean",

abstract = "We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a {"}no mitigation{"} scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives, will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine protected areas in a changing ocean.",

keywords = "DBEM, NicheMapper, Paris agreement, RCP scenarios, energy requirement, mechanistic habitat selection, seabird distributions, seabird migration",

author = "M Clairbaux and W Cheung and P Mathewson and W Porter and N Courbin and J Fort and H Str{\o}m and B Moe and P Fauchald and S Descamps and H Helgason and Br{\aa}then, {V S} and B Merkel and T Anker-Nilssen and Bringsvor, {I S} and O Chastel and S Christensen-Dalsgaard and J Danielsen and F Daunt and N Dehnhard and Erikstad, {K E} and A Ezhov and M Gavrilo and Y Krasnov and M Langset and Lorentsen, {S H} and M Newell and B Olsen and Reiertsen, {T K} and G Systad and Th{\'o}rarinsson, {T L} and M Baran and T Diamond and Fayet, {A L} and Fitzsimmons, {M G} and M Frederiksen and Gilchrist, {H G} and T Guilford and Huffeldt, {N P} and M Jessopp and Johansen, {K L} and Kouwenberg, {A L} and Linnebjerg, {J F} and {McFarlane Tranquilla}, L and M Mallory and Merkel, {F R} and W Montevecchi and A Mosbech and A Petersen and D Gr{\'e}millet",

year = "2021",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1111/gcb.15497",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

pages = "1457--1469",

journal = "Global Change Biology",

issn = "1354-1013",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",

number = "7",

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Clairbaux, M, Cheung, W, Mathewson, P, Porter, W, Courbin, N, Fort, J, Strøm, H, Moe, B, Fauchald, P, Descamps, S, Helgason, H, Bråthen, VS, Merkel, B, Anker-Nilssen, T, Bringsvor, IS, Chastel, O, Christensen-Dalsgaard, S, Danielsen, J, Daunt, F, Dehnhard, N, Erikstad, KE, Ezhov, A, Gavrilo, M, Krasnov, Y, Langset, M, Lorentsen, SH, Newell, M, Olsen, B, Reiertsen, TK, Systad, G, Thórarinsson, TL, Baran, M, Diamond, T, Fayet, AL, Fitzsimmons, MG, Frederiksen, M, Gilchrist, HG, Guilford, T, Huffeldt, NP, Jessopp, M, Johansen, KL, Kouwenberg, AL, Linnebjerg, JF, McFarlane Tranquilla, L, Mallory, M, Merkel, FR, Montevecchi, W, Mosbech, A, Petersen, A & Grémillet, D 2021, 'Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean', Global Change Biology, bind 27, nr. 7, s. 1457-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

TY - JOUR

T1 - Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

AU - Clairbaux, M

AU - Cheung, W

AU - Mathewson, P

AU - Porter, W

AU - Courbin, N

AU - Fort, J

AU - Strøm, H

AU - Moe, B

AU - Fauchald, P

AU - Descamps, S

AU - Helgason, H

AU - Bråthen, V S

AU - Merkel, B

AU - Anker-Nilssen, T

AU - Bringsvor, I S

AU - Chastel, O

AU - Christensen-Dalsgaard, S

AU - Danielsen, J

AU - Daunt, F

AU - Dehnhard, N

AU - Erikstad, K E

AU - Ezhov, A

AU - Gavrilo, M

AU - Krasnov, Y

AU - Langset, M

AU - Lorentsen, S H

AU - Newell, M

AU - Olsen, B

AU - Reiertsen, T K

AU - Systad, G

AU - Thórarinsson, T L

AU - Baran, M

AU - Diamond, T

AU - Fayet, A L

AU - Fitzsimmons, M G

AU - Frederiksen, M

AU - Gilchrist, H G

AU - Guilford, T

AU - Huffeldt, N P

AU - Jessopp, M

AU - Johansen, K L

AU - Kouwenberg, A L

AU - Linnebjerg, J F

AU - McFarlane Tranquilla, L

AU - Mallory, M

AU - Merkel, F R

AU - Montevecchi, W

AU - Mosbech, A

AU - Petersen, A

AU - Grémillet, D

PY - 2021/4

Y1 - 2021/4

N2 - We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives, will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine protected areas in a changing ocean.

AB - We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives, will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine protected areas in a changing ocean.

KW - DBEM

KW - NicheMapper

KW - Paris agreement

KW - RCP scenarios

KW - energy requirement

KW - mechanistic habitat selection

KW - seabird distributions

KW - seabird migration

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85100116391&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.15497

DO - 10.1111/gcb.15497

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33347684

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 27

SP - 1457

EP - 1469

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 7

ER -

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

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