Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

Daniel Weitzel; John Gerring; Daniel Pemstein; Svend Erik Skaaning

doi:10.1017/S1049096523001075

Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

Daniel Weitzel^*, John Gerring, Daniel Pemstein, Svend Erik Skaaning

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Institut for Statskundskab

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

1 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Multiple well-known democracy-rating projects—including Freedom House, Polity, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)—have identified apparent global regression in recent years. These measures rely on partly subjective indicators, which—in principle—could suffer from rater bias. For instance, Little and Meng (2023) argue that shared beliefs driven by the current zeitgeist could lead to shared biases that produce the appearance of democratic backsliding in subjectively coded measures. To assess this argument and the strength of the evidence for global democratic backsliding, we propose an observable-to-subjective score mapping (OSM) methodology that uses only easily observable features of democracy to predict existing indices of democracy. Applying this methodology to three prominent democracy indices, we find evidence of backsliding—but beginning later and not as pronounced as suggested by some of the original indices. Our approach suggests that the Freedom House measure particularly does not track with the recent patterns in observable indicators and that there has been a stasis or—at most—a modest decline in the average level of democracy.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	PS: Political Science & Politics
Vol/bind	57
Nummer	2
Sider (fra-til)	216-223
Antal sider	8
ISSN	1049-0965
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096523001075
Status	Udgivet - 11 apr. 2024

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Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

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