Market Set-up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Rate Decisions

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  • Dick van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics
  • ,
  • Robin L. Lumsdaine, American University
  • ,
  • Michel van der Wel

This article considers the extent to which the federal (fed) funds futures market prepares for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We demonstrate that there is often less variation in fed funds futures prices during the period immediately preceding an FOMC announcement than in earlier periods, despite greater trading activity, as the market has already incorporated anticipated signals. We find that macro announcements and central bank officials' congressional testimony are of comparable importance, whereas speeches are relatively unimportant. In addition, macro announcements have stronger effects when they are released during the Fed's ‘blackout’ period, emphasising important interaction effects.

TidsskriftThe Economic Journal
Sider (fra-til)618-653
Antal sider36
StatusUdgivet - 1 maj 2016

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