Managing Volumetric Risk of Long-term Power Purchase Agreements

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  • Bo Tranberg, Ento Labs ApS, Danske Commodities A/S
  • ,
  • Rasmus Thrane Hansen, Jyske Bank, Danmark
  • Leopoldo Catania
There exists a negative dependence between wind power production and electricity spot price. This is an important fact to consider for risk management of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). In this study we investigate this dependence by constructing a joint model using constant as well as time-varying copulas. We propose using a new generation of score-driven models as marginal model for the spot price of electricity as these are more robust to extreme events compared to ARMA-GARCH models. We apply the new model to pricing and risk management of PPAs and benchmark it against a previously published model of the ARMA-GARCH type. Our comparison shows that the score-driven model results in a statistically significant improvement of predicting the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which is of high importance for risk management of long-term PPAs. Further, comparing constant and time--varying copulas we find that all time-varying copulas are significantly better than their constant counterparts at predicting the VaR, hence time-varying copulas should be used in risk management of PPAs.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer104567
TidsskriftEnergy Economics
Vol/bind85
Antal sider13
ISSN0140-9883
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2020

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