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Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  • Constantin M Zohner, ETH Zürich
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  • Lidong Mo, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
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  • Susanne S Renner, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
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  • Jens-Christian Svenning
  • Yann Vitasse, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
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  • Blas M Benito, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway.
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  • Alejandro Ordonez
  • Frederik Baumgarten, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
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  • Jean-François Bastin, Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Lab, Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium., ETH Zürich
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  • Veronica Sebald, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
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  • Peter B Reich, Western Sydney University, University of Minnesota
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  • Jingjing Liang, Purdue University
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  • Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Wageningen University & Research
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  • Sergio de-Miguel, Joint Research Unit, Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia CTFC-Centre for Research in Agrotechnology, E25280, Solsona, Spain., University of Lleida
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  • Giorgio Alberti, Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council, 50019 Florence, Italy., University of Udine
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  • Clara Antón-Fernández, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
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  • Radomir Balazy, Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland.
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  • Urs-Beat Brändli, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
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  • Han Y H Chen, Fujian Normal University, Lakehead University
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  • Chelsea Chisholm, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
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  • Emil Cienciala, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
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  • Selvadurai Dayanandan, Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada.
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  • Tom M Fayle, Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia., Czech Academy of Sciences
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  • Lorenzo Frizzera, Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
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  • Damiano Gianelle, Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
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  • Andrzej M Jagodzinski, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Game Management and Forest Protection, Poznan University of Life Sciences, PL-60-625 Poznan, Poland., Polish Academy of Sciences
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  • Bogdan Jaroszewicz, University of Warsaw
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  • Tommaso Jucker, School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TQ United Kingdom.
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  • Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Københavns Universitet
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  • Mohammed Latif Khan, Department of Botany, Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh 470003, India.
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  • Hyun Seok Kim, Seoul National University, National Center for Agro Meteorology, Seoul
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  • Henn Korjus, Estonian University of Life Sciences
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  • Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Københavns Universitet
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  • Diana Laarmann, Estonian University of Life Sciences
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  • Mait Lang, Estonian University of Life Sciences
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  • Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects, Polish State Forests, 02-362 Warsaw, Poland.
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  • Pascal A Niklaus, University of Zurich
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  • Alain Paquette, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H3C 3P8 Canada.
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  • Hans Pretzsch, Technical University of Munich
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  • Purabi Saikia, Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jharkhand, Brambe, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835205, India.
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  • Peter Schall, Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
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  • Vladimír Šebeň, National Forest Centre, 96001 Zvolen, Slovak Republic.
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  • Miroslav Svoboda, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Praha 6 Suchdol, 16521, Czech Republic.
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  • Elena Tikhonova, Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russian Federation.
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  • Helder Viana, Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal., Polytechnic Institute of Viseu
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  • Chunyu Zhang, Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
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  • Xiuhai Zhao, Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
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  • Thomas W Crowther, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Vol/bind117
Nummer22
Sider (fra-til)12192-12200
Antal sider9
ISSN0027-8424
DOI
StatusUdgivet - jun. 2020

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