TY - JOUR
T1 - Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in Kenya
T2 - Future Projections and Implications for Protected Areas
AU - Parracciani, Cecilia
AU - Buitenwerf, Robert
AU - Svenning, Jens Christian
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.
PY - 2023/11
Y1 - 2023/11
N2 - Climate change will cause substantial vegetation shifts across the world. Africa may face varying dynamics such as tree decline, savannization, and woody encroachment due to rising temperatures and rainfall changes. This study examines the potential effects of climate change on Kenyan vegetation and vegetation shifts for 2050 and 2100, employing a statistical model to predict vegetation state as driven by environmental variables, including temperature, soil moisture, livestock density, and topography. We evaluate the model by hindcasting it from 2020 to 2000 and then project future vegetation states for 2050 and 2100 under SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5. In response to moderate emissions, a notable increase in arid-associated shrubland vegetation (53–58%) is forecasted, leading to the expansion of drylands at the expense of savannas, grasslands, and forests. Under high-emission scenarios, savannas are forecasted to expand (52–65%) at the expense of forested areas. Overall, dense forest cover declines across scenarios, affecting protected areas by promoting increased savanna cover and reducing forest area (40% to 50%). These projected shifts in major vegetation types would likely alter ecosystem functioning and associated services, impacting pastoralists and wildlife and raising biodiversity concerns. Protected areas in Kenya could lose 50% of their forests, highlighting the urgency of climate change mitigation. These findings offer a crucial foundation for future research and action on Kenya’s vegetation.
AB - Climate change will cause substantial vegetation shifts across the world. Africa may face varying dynamics such as tree decline, savannization, and woody encroachment due to rising temperatures and rainfall changes. This study examines the potential effects of climate change on Kenyan vegetation and vegetation shifts for 2050 and 2100, employing a statistical model to predict vegetation state as driven by environmental variables, including temperature, soil moisture, livestock density, and topography. We evaluate the model by hindcasting it from 2020 to 2000 and then project future vegetation states for 2050 and 2100 under SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5. In response to moderate emissions, a notable increase in arid-associated shrubland vegetation (53–58%) is forecasted, leading to the expansion of drylands at the expense of savannas, grasslands, and forests. Under high-emission scenarios, savannas are forecasted to expand (52–65%) at the expense of forested areas. Overall, dense forest cover declines across scenarios, affecting protected areas by promoting increased savanna cover and reducing forest area (40% to 50%). These projected shifts in major vegetation types would likely alter ecosystem functioning and associated services, impacting pastoralists and wildlife and raising biodiversity concerns. Protected areas in Kenya could lose 50% of their forests, highlighting the urgency of climate change mitigation. These findings offer a crucial foundation for future research and action on Kenya’s vegetation.
KW - Africa
KW - climate change
KW - ecosystem degradation
KW - ERA5
KW - protected area
KW - SSP
KW - vegetation shift
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178162665&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/land12112052
DO - 10.3390/land12112052
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85178162665
SN - 2073-445X
VL - 12
JO - Land
JF - Land
IS - 11
M1 - 2052
ER -