Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

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Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe. / Kozarcanin, S.; Hanna, R.; Staffell, I.; Gross, R.; Andresen, G. B.

I: Energy Policy, Bind 140, 111386, 05.2020.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Kozarcanin, S. ; Hanna, R. ; Staffell, I. ; Gross, R. ; Andresen, G. B. / Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe. I: Energy Policy. 2020 ; Bind 140.

Bibtex

@article{88c03054e8fc467ea919a9c0f1c22ee0,
title = "Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe",
abstract = "Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.",
keywords = "Climate change, Cost-optimisation, Decentralised heating, EURO-CORDEX, IPCC, Policy",
author = "S. Kozarcanin and R. Hanna and I. Staffell and R. Gross and Andresen, {G. B.}",
year = "2020",
month = may,
doi = "10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386",
language = "English",
volume = "140",
journal = "Energy Policy",
issn = "0301-4215",
publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

AU - Kozarcanin, S.

AU - Hanna, R.

AU - Staffell, I.

AU - Gross, R.

AU - Andresen, G. B.

PY - 2020/5

Y1 - 2020/5

N2 - Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.

AB - Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.

KW - Climate change

KW - Cost-optimisation

KW - Decentralised heating

KW - EURO-CORDEX

KW - IPCC

KW - Policy

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85080971565&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85080971565

VL - 140

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

M1 - 111386

ER -