Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

Pierre Martre; Sibylle Dueri; Jose Rafael Guarin; Frank Ewert; Heidi Webber; Daniel Calderini; Gemma Molero; Matthew Reynolds; Daniel Miralles; Guillermo Garcia; Hamish Brown; Mike George; Rob Craigie; Jean Pierre Cohan; Jean Charles Deswarte; Gustavo Slafer; Francesco Giunta; Davide Cammarano; Roberto Ferrise; Thomas Gaiser; Yujing Gao; Zvi Hochman; Gerrit Hoogenboom; Leslie A. Hunt; Kurt C. Kersebaum; Claas Nendel; Gloria Padovan; Alex C. Ruane; Amit Kumar Srivastava; Tommaso Stella; Iwan Supit; Peter Thorburn; Enli Wang; Joost Wolf; Chuang Zhao; Zhigan Zhao; Senthold Asseng

doi:10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3

Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

Pierre Martre^*, Sibylle Dueri, Jose Rafael Guarin, Frank Ewert, Heidi Webber, Daniel Calderini, Gemma Molero, Matthew Reynolds, Daniel Miralles, Guillermo Garcia, Hamish Brown, Mike George, Rob Craigie, Jean Pierre Cohan, Jean Charles Deswarte, Gustavo Slafer, Francesco Giunta, Davide Cammarano, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas GaiserYujing Gao, Zvi Hochman, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Leslie A. Hunt, Kurt C. Kersebaum, Claas Nendel, Gloria Padovan, Alex C. Ruane, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Tommaso Stella, Iwan Supit, Peter Thorburn, Enli Wang, Joost Wolf, Chuang Zhao, Zhigan Zhao, Senthold Asseng

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Institut for Agroøkologi - Klima og Vand

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Letter › peer review

30 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Increasing global food demand will require more food production¹ without further exceeding the planetary boundaries² while simultaneously adapting to climate change³. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes⁴ to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Nature Plants
Vol/bind	10
Nummer	7
Sider (fra-til)	1081-1090
Antal sider	10
ISSN	2055-0278
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3
Status	Udgivet - jul. 2024

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Martre, P., Dueri, S., Guarin, J. R., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Calderini, D., Molero, G., Reynolds, M., Miralles, D., Garcia, G., Brown, H., George, M., Craigie, R., Cohan, J. P., Deswarte, J. C., Slafer, G., Giunta, F., Cammarano, D., Ferrise, R., ... Asseng, S. (2024). Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change. Nature Plants, 10(7), 1081-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3

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title = "Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change",

abstract = "Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.",

author = "Pierre Martre and Sibylle Dueri and Guarin, {Jose Rafael} and Frank Ewert and Heidi Webber and Daniel Calderini and Gemma Molero and Matthew Reynolds and Daniel Miralles and Guillermo Garcia and Hamish Brown and Mike George and Rob Craigie and Cohan, {Jean Pierre} and Deswarte, {Jean Charles} and Gustavo Slafer and Francesco Giunta and Davide Cammarano and Roberto Ferrise and Thomas Gaiser and Yujing Gao and Zvi Hochman and Gerrit Hoogenboom and Hunt, {Leslie A.} and Kersebaum, {Kurt C.} and Claas Nendel and Gloria Padovan and Ruane, {Alex C.} and Srivastava, {Amit Kumar} and Tommaso Stella and Iwan Supit and Peter Thorburn and Enli Wang and Joost Wolf and Chuang Zhao and Zhigan Zhao and Senthold Asseng",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.",

year = "2024",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

pages = "1081--1090",

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Martre, P, Dueri, S, Guarin, JR, Ewert, F, Webber, H, Calderini, D, Molero, G, Reynolds, M, Miralles, D, Garcia, G, Brown, H, George, M, Craigie, R, Cohan, JP, Deswarte, JC, Slafer, G, Giunta, F, Cammarano, D, Ferrise, R, Gaiser, T, Gao, Y, Hochman, Z, Hoogenboom, G, Hunt, LA, Kersebaum, KC, Nendel, C, Padovan, G, Ruane, AC, Srivastava, AK, Stella, T, Supit, I, Thorburn, P, Wang, E, Wolf, J, Zhao, C, Zhao, Z & Asseng, S 2024, 'Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change', Nature Plants, bind 10, nr. 7, s. 1081-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

AU - Martre, Pierre

AU - Dueri, Sibylle

AU - Guarin, Jose Rafael

AU - Ewert, Frank

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Calderini, Daniel

AU - Molero, Gemma

AU - Reynolds, Matthew

AU - Miralles, Daniel

AU - Garcia, Guillermo

AU - Brown, Hamish

AU - George, Mike

AU - Craigie, Rob

AU - Cohan, Jean Pierre

AU - Deswarte, Jean Charles

AU - Slafer, Gustavo

AU - Giunta, Francesco

AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Gaiser, Thomas

AU - Gao, Yujing

AU - Hochman, Zvi

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Hunt, Leslie A.

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt C.

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - Padovan, Gloria

AU - Ruane, Alex C.

AU - Srivastava, Amit Kumar

AU - Stella, Tommaso

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Thorburn, Peter

AU - Wang, Enli

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Zhao, Chuang

AU - Zhao, Zhigan

AU - Asseng, Senthold

PY - 2024/7

Y1 - 2024/7

N2 - Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

AB - Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3

DO - 10.1038/s41477-024-01739-3

M3 - Letter

C2 - 38965400

AN - SCOPUS:85197525842

SN - 2055-0278

VL - 10

SP - 1081

EP - 1090

JO - Nature Plants

JF - Nature Plants

IS - 7

ER -

Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

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