TY - JOUR
T1 - Getting the Context Right in Quantitative Historical Analysis
T2 - The Case of the Investiture Controversy
AU - Møller, Jørgen
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Quantitative historical analysis must be nested in a qualitative understanding of the empirical context if it is to be credible. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Ethan Bueno de Mesquita’s analysis of the consequences of the Investiture Controversy (1075–1122) for the development of lay political authority and economic development illustrates this. They portray the Investiture Controversy and the concordats it produced as strengthening lay rulers’ power over bishop appointment, but the dominant view among historians is that it did the opposite. They also operationalize bishop alignment in a problematic way, whichmakes it very difficult to draw firm conclusions fromtheir quantitative analysis. Finally, they project amodern image of international agreements and state power onto a medieval period that looked very different, and their supporting qualitative evidence suffers from selection bias. The example shows how political scientists must do solid historical spadework before they model and interpret their data.
AB - Quantitative historical analysis must be nested in a qualitative understanding of the empirical context if it is to be credible. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Ethan Bueno de Mesquita’s analysis of the consequences of the Investiture Controversy (1075–1122) for the development of lay political authority and economic development illustrates this. They portray the Investiture Controversy and the concordats it produced as strengthening lay rulers’ power over bishop appointment, but the dominant view among historians is that it did the opposite. They also operationalize bishop alignment in a problematic way, whichmakes it very difficult to draw firm conclusions fromtheir quantitative analysis. Finally, they project amodern image of international agreements and state power onto a medieval period that looked very different, and their supporting qualitative evidence suffers from selection bias. The example shows how political scientists must do solid historical spadework before they model and interpret their data.
KW - historical context
KW - Investiture Controversy
KW - qualitative evidence
KW - quantitative historical analysis
KW - reading history backward
KW - selection bias
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85200760472&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1086/727596
DO - 10.1086/727596
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85200760472
SN - 0022-3816
VL - 86
SP - 1083
EP - 1086
JO - The Journal of Politics
JF - The Journal of Politics
IS - 3
ER -