Future of the human climate niche

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Future of the human climate niche. / Xu, Chi; Kohler, Timothy A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Svenning, Jens Christian; Scheffer, Marten.

I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Bind 117, Nr. 21, 05.2020, s. 11350-11355.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Harvard

Xu, C, Kohler, TA, Lenton, TM, Svenning, JC & Scheffer, M 2020, 'Future of the human climate niche', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, bind 117, nr. 21, s. 11350-11355. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

APA

Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J. C., & Scheffer, M. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(21), 11350-11355. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

CBE

Xu C, Kohler TA, Lenton TM, Svenning JC, Scheffer M. 2020. Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117(21):11350-11355. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

MLA

Xu, Chi o.a.. "Future of the human climate niche". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020, 117(21). 11350-11355. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

Vancouver

Xu C, Kohler TA, Lenton TM, Svenning JC, Scheffer M. Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 maj;117(21):11350-11355. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

Author

Xu, Chi ; Kohler, Timothy A. ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Svenning, Jens Christian ; Scheffer, Marten. / Future of the human climate niche. I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 ; Bind 117, Nr. 21. s. 11350-11355.

Bibtex

@article{71ee127fddbc418ab533461d39396157,
title = "Future of the human climate niche",
abstract = "All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.",
keywords = "Climate, Migration, Societies",
author = "Chi Xu and Kohler, {Timothy A.} and Lenton, {Timothy M.} and Svenning, {Jens Christian} and Marten Scheffer",
year = "2020",
month = may,
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1910114117",
language = "English",
volume = "117",
pages = "11350--11355",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
number = "21",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future of the human climate niche

AU - Xu, Chi

AU - Kohler, Timothy A.

AU - Lenton, Timothy M.

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

AU - Scheffer, Marten

PY - 2020/5

Y1 - 2020/5

N2 - All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

AB - All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

KW - Climate

KW - Migration

KW - Societies

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085539369&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1910114117

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1910114117

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32366654

AN - SCOPUS:85085539369

VL - 117

SP - 11350

EP - 11355

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 21

ER -