Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties

Dennis Trolle; Anders Nielsen; Hans Estrup Andersen; Hans Thodsen; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Christen Duus Børgesen; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Torben O. Sonnenborg; Ida B. Karlsson; Jesper Philip Aagaard Christensen; Stiig Markager; Erik Jeppesen

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties

Dennis Trolle, Anders Nielsen, Hans Estrup Andersen, Hans Thodsen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Ida B. Karlsson, Jesper Philip Aagaard Christensen, Stiig Markager, Erik Jeppesen

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

53 Citationer (Scopus)

198 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

To analyse the potential future ecological state of estuaries located in the temperate climate (here exemplified with the Odense Fjord estuary, Denmark), we combined end-of-the-century climate change projections from four different climate models, four contrasting land use scenarios (“Agriculture for nature” “Extensive agriculture” “High-tech agriculture” and “Market driven agriculture”) and two different eco-hydrological models. By decomposing the variance of the model-simulated output from all scenario and model combinations, we identified the key sources of uncertainties of these future projections. There was generally a decline in the ecological state of the estuary in scenarios with a warmer climate. Strikingly, even the most nature-friendly land use scenario, where a proportion of the intensive agricultural area was converted to forest, may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of a future warmer climate on the ecological state of the estuary. The different land use scenarios were the most significant sources of uncertainty in the projections of future ecological state, followed, in order, by eco-hydrological models and climate models, albeit all three sources caused high variability in the simulated outputs. Therefore, when projecting the future state of aquatic ecosystems in a global warming context, one should at the very least consider to evaluate an ensemble of land use scenarios (nutrient loads) but ideally also include multiple eco-hydrological models and climate change projections. Our study may set precedence for future attempts to predict and quantify uncertainties of model and model input ensembles, as this will likely be key elements in future tools for decision-making processes.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Science of the Total Environment
Vol/bind	657
Sider (fra-til)	627-633
Antal sider	7
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055
Status	Udgivet - 2019

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

1-s2.0-S0048969718348952-mainForlagets udgivne version, 1,08 MBLicens: CC BY

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Trolle, D., Nielsen, A., Andersen, H. E., Thodsen, H., Olesen, J. E., Børgesen, C. D., Refsgaard, J. C., Sonnenborg, T. O., Karlsson, I. B., Christensen, J. P. A., Markager, S., & Jeppesen, E. (2019). Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties. Science of the Total Environment, 657, 627-633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

@article{7228182f794b44a784035759f5afde23,

title = "Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties",

abstract = "To analyse the potential future ecological state of estuaries located in the temperate climate (here exemplified with the Odense Fjord estuary, Denmark), we combined end-of-the-century climate change projections from four different climate models, four contrasting land use scenarios (“Agriculture for nature” “Extensive agriculture” “High-tech agriculture” and “Market driven agriculture”) and two different eco-hydrological models. By decomposing the variance of the model-simulated output from all scenario and model combinations, we identified the key sources of uncertainties of these future projections. There was generally a decline in the ecological state of the estuary in scenarios with a warmer climate. Strikingly, even the most nature-friendly land use scenario, where a proportion of the intensive agricultural area was converted to forest, may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of a future warmer climate on the ecological state of the estuary. The different land use scenarios were the most significant sources of uncertainty in the projections of future ecological state, followed, in order, by eco-hydrological models and climate models, albeit all three sources caused high variability in the simulated outputs. Therefore, when projecting the future state of aquatic ecosystems in a global warming context, one should at the very least consider to evaluate an ensemble of land use scenarios (nutrient loads) but ideally also include multiple eco-hydrological models and climate change projections. Our study may set precedence for future attempts to predict and quantify uncertainties of model and model input ensembles, as this will likely be key elements in future tools for decision-making processes.",

author = "Dennis Trolle and Anders Nielsen and Andersen, {Hans Estrup} and Hans Thodsen and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen Eivind} and B{\o}rgesen, {Christen Duus} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian} and Sonnenborg, {Torben O.} and Karlsson, {Ida B.} and Christensen, {Jesper Philip Aagaard} and Stiig Markager and Erik Jeppesen",

year = "2019",

doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055",

language = "English",

volume = "657",

pages = "627--633",

journal = "Science of the Total Environment",

issn = "0048-9697",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

Trolle, D, Nielsen, A, Andersen, HE , Thodsen, H , Olesen, JE , Børgesen, CD, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, Karlsson, IB, Christensen, JPA , Markager, S & Jeppesen, E 2019, 'Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties', Science of the Total Environment, bind 657, s. 627-633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties. / Trolle, Dennis; Nielsen, Anders; Andersen, Hans Estrup et al.
I: Science of the Total Environment, Bind 657, 2019, s. 627-633.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties

AU - Trolle, Dennis

AU - Nielsen, Anders

AU - Andersen, Hans Estrup

AU - Thodsen, Hans

AU - Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

AU - Børgesen, Christen Duus

AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

AU - Sonnenborg, Torben O.

AU - Karlsson, Ida B.

AU - Christensen, Jesper Philip Aagaard

AU - Markager, Stiig

AU - Jeppesen, Erik

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - To analyse the potential future ecological state of estuaries located in the temperate climate (here exemplified with the Odense Fjord estuary, Denmark), we combined end-of-the-century climate change projections from four different climate models, four contrasting land use scenarios (“Agriculture for nature” “Extensive agriculture” “High-tech agriculture” and “Market driven agriculture”) and two different eco-hydrological models. By decomposing the variance of the model-simulated output from all scenario and model combinations, we identified the key sources of uncertainties of these future projections. There was generally a decline in the ecological state of the estuary in scenarios with a warmer climate. Strikingly, even the most nature-friendly land use scenario, where a proportion of the intensive agricultural area was converted to forest, may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of a future warmer climate on the ecological state of the estuary. The different land use scenarios were the most significant sources of uncertainty in the projections of future ecological state, followed, in order, by eco-hydrological models and climate models, albeit all three sources caused high variability in the simulated outputs. Therefore, when projecting the future state of aquatic ecosystems in a global warming context, one should at the very least consider to evaluate an ensemble of land use scenarios (nutrient loads) but ideally also include multiple eco-hydrological models and climate change projections. Our study may set precedence for future attempts to predict and quantify uncertainties of model and model input ensembles, as this will likely be key elements in future tools for decision-making processes.

AB - To analyse the potential future ecological state of estuaries located in the temperate climate (here exemplified with the Odense Fjord estuary, Denmark), we combined end-of-the-century climate change projections from four different climate models, four contrasting land use scenarios (“Agriculture for nature” “Extensive agriculture” “High-tech agriculture” and “Market driven agriculture”) and two different eco-hydrological models. By decomposing the variance of the model-simulated output from all scenario and model combinations, we identified the key sources of uncertainties of these future projections. There was generally a decline in the ecological state of the estuary in scenarios with a warmer climate. Strikingly, even the most nature-friendly land use scenario, where a proportion of the intensive agricultural area was converted to forest, may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of a future warmer climate on the ecological state of the estuary. The different land use scenarios were the most significant sources of uncertainty in the projections of future ecological state, followed, in order, by eco-hydrological models and climate models, albeit all three sources caused high variability in the simulated outputs. Therefore, when projecting the future state of aquatic ecosystems in a global warming context, one should at the very least consider to evaluate an ensemble of land use scenarios (nutrient loads) but ideally also include multiple eco-hydrological models and climate change projections. Our study may set precedence for future attempts to predict and quantify uncertainties of model and model input ensembles, as this will likely be key elements in future tools for decision-making processes.

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.055

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 30677929

SN - 0048-9697

VL - 657

SP - 627

EP - 633

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

ER -

Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties

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