Does Election Fraud Erode Support for Autocrats?

TY - JOUR

T1 - Does Election Fraud Erode Support for Autocrats?

AU - Aarslew, Laurits Florang

PY - 2024/10

Y1 - 2024/10

N2 - Does election fraud erode support for dictators? An original survey experiment from Russia following the 2020 vote on constitutional amendments reveals three key findings. First, regime supporters and opponents differ significantly in their baseline beliefs about election fairness. While regime opponents are already aware of fraud, supporters expect relatively fair elections. Consequently, only regime supporters revise their election beliefs when exposed to fraud information. Second, fraud revelations reduce regime legitimacy beliefs, but only among the regime’s political base. In contrast, regime opponents already perceive the regime as illegitimate at the baseline. Third, the experiment shows minimal, if any, effects on attitudes toward Putin. While fraud revelations cause regime supporters to adjust their views on the regime, their opinions about Putin remain largely unaffected. The findings imply that dictators can maintain popular support among their political base while manipulating elections, posing questions about the potential of fraud to undermine regime stability.

AB - Does election fraud erode support for dictators? An original survey experiment from Russia following the 2020 vote on constitutional amendments reveals three key findings. First, regime supporters and opponents differ significantly in their baseline beliefs about election fairness. While regime opponents are already aware of fraud, supporters expect relatively fair elections. Consequently, only regime supporters revise their election beliefs when exposed to fraud information. Second, fraud revelations reduce regime legitimacy beliefs, but only among the regime’s political base. In contrast, regime opponents already perceive the regime as illegitimate at the baseline. Third, the experiment shows minimal, if any, effects on attitudes toward Putin. While fraud revelations cause regime supporters to adjust their views on the regime, their opinions about Putin remain largely unaffected. The findings imply that dictators can maintain popular support among their political base while manipulating elections, posing questions about the potential of fraud to undermine regime stability.

KW - Diktatur

KW - Rusland

KW - Valg

KW - Valgsvindel

KW - authoritarianism

KW - election fraud

KW - political support

KW - public opinion

KW - regime legitimacy

KW - survey experiment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85179704579&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/00104140231209959

DO - 10.1177/00104140231209959

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0010-4140

VL - 57

SP - 1978

EP - 2010

JO - Comparative Political Studies

JF - Comparative Political Studies

IS - 12

ER -