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Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents

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Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents. / Kim, Jinsoo; Ryu, Donghoon; Sovacool, Benjamin K.

I: Extractive Industries and Society, Bind 8, Nr. 2, 100885, 06.2021.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Kim, Jinsoo ; Ryu, Donghoon ; Sovacool, Benjamin K. / Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents. I: Extractive Industries and Society. 2021 ; Bind 8, Nr. 2.

Bibtex

@article{cd65de38ec4a47fcab5029ee3900dcd9,
title = "Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents",
abstract = "Although energy systems are well known to lead to positive or negative externalities, one less explored attribute has been a rigorous historical and future looking assessment of energy accidents. In this study, we analyze an extensive dataset of 4,450 energy accidents from 1800 to 2018 across eleven energy systems. Our analysis reveals that these collective energy systems resulted in more than 278,000 human fatalities and approximately $421.3 billion in economic damages. Historically, coal accidents are the most frequent, accounting for almost half of all accidents. In terms of severity, accidents at hydroelectric dams were the most fatal, accounting for 67 percent. In terms of cost, nuclear power accidents are by far the most expensive, accounting for 62 percent of damages. Coupling our data and an econometric model with future projections of energy demand underscores the magnitude of the trends identified: 986,000 to 1.72 million potential energy accident deaths in 2040, as well as almost $1 trillion in damages. This leads to compelling policy implications, especially concerning the need for safety improvements in energy systems such as bioenergy and nuclear power, as well as the need for the IEA and IRENA, among others, to begin to better track and account for energy accident trends. We find that across all accidents, fuel extraction and processing, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most fatalities, and yet conversion and operation, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most damages. Moreover, achieving strong climate goals leads to an unacceptably higher risk of accidents and human health and economic consequences. Finally, as its economic development propels increases in energy consumption, Africa will become the future center for energy accident fatalities.",
keywords = "Accident prevention, Energy disasters, Risk, Safety, Security",
author = "Jinsoo Kim and Donghoon Ryu and Sovacool, {Benjamin K.}",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021",
year = "2021",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1016/j.exis.2021.02.005",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
journal = "The Extractive Industries and Society",
issn = "2214-790X",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents

AU - Kim, Jinsoo

AU - Ryu, Donghoon

AU - Sovacool, Benjamin K.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021

PY - 2021/6

Y1 - 2021/6

N2 - Although energy systems are well known to lead to positive or negative externalities, one less explored attribute has been a rigorous historical and future looking assessment of energy accidents. In this study, we analyze an extensive dataset of 4,450 energy accidents from 1800 to 2018 across eleven energy systems. Our analysis reveals that these collective energy systems resulted in more than 278,000 human fatalities and approximately $421.3 billion in economic damages. Historically, coal accidents are the most frequent, accounting for almost half of all accidents. In terms of severity, accidents at hydroelectric dams were the most fatal, accounting for 67 percent. In terms of cost, nuclear power accidents are by far the most expensive, accounting for 62 percent of damages. Coupling our data and an econometric model with future projections of energy demand underscores the magnitude of the trends identified: 986,000 to 1.72 million potential energy accident deaths in 2040, as well as almost $1 trillion in damages. This leads to compelling policy implications, especially concerning the need for safety improvements in energy systems such as bioenergy and nuclear power, as well as the need for the IEA and IRENA, among others, to begin to better track and account for energy accident trends. We find that across all accidents, fuel extraction and processing, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most fatalities, and yet conversion and operation, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most damages. Moreover, achieving strong climate goals leads to an unacceptably higher risk of accidents and human health and economic consequences. Finally, as its economic development propels increases in energy consumption, Africa will become the future center for energy accident fatalities.

AB - Although energy systems are well known to lead to positive or negative externalities, one less explored attribute has been a rigorous historical and future looking assessment of energy accidents. In this study, we analyze an extensive dataset of 4,450 energy accidents from 1800 to 2018 across eleven energy systems. Our analysis reveals that these collective energy systems resulted in more than 278,000 human fatalities and approximately $421.3 billion in economic damages. Historically, coal accidents are the most frequent, accounting for almost half of all accidents. In terms of severity, accidents at hydroelectric dams were the most fatal, accounting for 67 percent. In terms of cost, nuclear power accidents are by far the most expensive, accounting for 62 percent of damages. Coupling our data and an econometric model with future projections of energy demand underscores the magnitude of the trends identified: 986,000 to 1.72 million potential energy accident deaths in 2040, as well as almost $1 trillion in damages. This leads to compelling policy implications, especially concerning the need for safety improvements in energy systems such as bioenergy and nuclear power, as well as the need for the IEA and IRENA, among others, to begin to better track and account for energy accident trends. We find that across all accidents, fuel extraction and processing, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most fatalities, and yet conversion and operation, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most damages. Moreover, achieving strong climate goals leads to an unacceptably higher risk of accidents and human health and economic consequences. Finally, as its economic development propels increases in energy consumption, Africa will become the future center for energy accident fatalities.

KW - Accident prevention

KW - Energy disasters

KW - Risk

KW - Safety

KW - Security

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101269236&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.exis.2021.02.005

DO - 10.1016/j.exis.2021.02.005

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85101269236

VL - 8

JO - The Extractive Industries and Society

JF - The Extractive Industries and Society

SN - 2214-790X

IS - 2

M1 - 100885

ER -