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Comparison of stochastic and regression based methods for quantification of predictive uncertainty of model-simulated wellhead protection zones in heterogeneous aquifers

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  • Steen Christensen
  • C. Moore, University of Queensland, Australien
  • J. Doherty, University of Queensland, Australien
  • Geologisk Institut, Geomorfologi
For a synthetic case we computed three types of individual prediction intervals for the location of the aquifer entry point of a particle that moves through a heterogeneous aquifer and ends up in a pumping well. (a) The nonlinear regression-based interval (Cooley, 2004) was found to be nearly accurate and required a few hundred model calls to be computed. (b) The linearized regression-based interval (Cooley, 2004) required just over a hundred model calls and also appeared to be nearly correct. (c) The calibration-constrained Monte-Carlo interval (Doherty, 2003) was found to be narrower than the regression-based intervals but required about half a million model calls. It is unclear whether or not this type of prediction interval is accurate.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelCalibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: From Uncertainty to Decision Making : Proceedings of ModelCARE’2005, The Hague, The Netherlands, June 2005. IAHS Publ. 304
RedaktørerM.F.P Bierkens, J.C. Gehrels, K. Kovar
Antal sider7
Vol/bindIAHS Publ. 304
ForlagIAHS Press
Udgivelsesår2006
Sider202-208
ISBN (trykt)1-901502-58-9
StatusUdgivet - 2006
BegivenhedModelCARE’2005 - The Hague, Holland
Varighed: 17 dec. 2010 → …

Konference

KonferenceModelCARE’2005
LandHolland
ByThe Hague
Periode17/12/2010 → …

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