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Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

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  • Loic Chalmandrier, Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
  • ,
  • Camille Albouy, Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
  • ,
  • Patrice Descombes, Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
  • ,
  • Brody Sandel
  • Soren Faurby, CSIC, CSIC - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Dept Biogeog & Global Change, University of Gothenburg
  • ,
  • Jens-Christian Svenning
  • Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
  • ,
  • Loic Pellissier, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zurich, Landscape Ecol, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic repositioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer171366
TidsskriftRoyal Society Open Science
Vol/bind5
Antal sider14
ISSN2054-5703
DOI
StatusUdgivet - mar. 2018

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