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Climate change effects on mussel larvae dispersal: A modelling approach from a Danish estuary

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  • Ane Pastor Rollan
  • Janus Larsen
  • Andrés Ospina-Álvarez, CSIC UIB, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), CSIC - Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados (IMEDEA), Universitat de les Illes Balears, University of Barcelona, Inst Mediterrani Estudis Avancats IMEDEA, Spanien
  • Flemming Thorbjørn Hansen, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Danmark
  • Vibe Schourup-Kristensen
  • Marie Maar
Larval dispersal is dependent on multiple physical and biotic factors and is a key driver of population connectivity. Connectivity is believed to be important in determining how species will cope in a changing climate by allowing species’ ranges to expand or constrict in response to environmental shifts. In the following study, we couple a 3D physical model system with an individual-based model in order to answer whether climate change effects on mussel larvae will affect the dispersal and the structure of the demographic connectivity in the Limfjord. The Limfjord in Denmark supports a large mussel fishery of the species Mytilus edulis and extensive mussel farming, which may be impacted by changes in larval supply under climate change. We produced scenarios changing the pelagic larval duration, spawning time, and presence of spawning mussels after events of hypoxia, and analysed the changes in potential larval recruitment. The results showed that only the 6-day and 36-day pelagic larval duration scenarios are significantly different from the reference scenario. There was no significant event on changes in spawning time. We described the hydrography of the basins to explain the connectivity results and concluded that severe events of hypoxia could potentially lead to isolation of the south-eastern areas of the fjord. Overall, this well-connected system is very stable to the changes addressed in this study. It is important to continue the research in this area since the adaptation and evolution of species in a changing ocean will bring new discoveries that will be useful for future management and conservation decisions.
TidsskriftRegional Studies in Marine Science
StatusAfsendt - 11 feb. 2022

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