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Climate and landscape changes enhance the global spread of a bloom-forming dinoflagellate related to fish kills and water quality deterioration

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  • Rafael Lacerda Macedo, Fed Univ Sao Carlos UFSCar, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol
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  • Ana Clara Sampaio Franco, Univ Fed Estado Rio de Janeiro UNIRIO, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Lab Ictiol Teor & Aplicada
  • ,
  • Philip Russo, Univ Fed Minas Gerais UFMG, Dept Zool
  • ,
  • Tim Collart, Univ Ghent, Ghent University, Dept Geol
  • ,
  • Stefano Mammola, Univ Helsinki, University of Helsinki, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, Bot Museum
  • ,
  • Erik Jeppesen
  • Christina Wyss Castelo Branco, Univ Fed Estado Rio de Janeiro UNIRIO, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Programa Posgrad Biodiversidade Neotrop
  • ,
  • Luciano Neves dos Santos, Univ Fed Estado Rio de Janeiro UNIRIO, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Lab Ictiol Teor & Aplicada
  • ,
  • Odete Rocha, Fed Univ Sao Carlos UFSCar, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol

Global inland water biodiversity is under mounting stress facing future scenarios of climate change, biological invasions, pollution, diversion, damming of rivers, and increase of water abstractions. Apart from having isolated effects, all these stressors threats act synergistically and thus pose additional emerging threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Native to Northern Europe, the nuisance and potential toxic dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans 1925 is a silent invader that blooms in freshwater systems; it has one of the most rapid spread rates globally. We propose a framework to determine the worldwide most vulnerable areas for the invasion by C. furcoides shortly (2041-2060) by combining future scenarios of climate change (a proxy for invasiveness) derived from ecological niche models with future dam construction data (a proxy for invasibility). The nine models applied in four future scenarios of greenhouse gas emission from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 showed a general increase in areas suitable for the invasion success of C. furcoides. High susceptibility overlapped with areas densely occupied by large and medium-size dams and future dam construction projects. Considering that C. furcoides can reproduce from a single cell, produces resistant stages, and has several strategies to cope with local environmental constraints, early detection protocols, and mitigation actions are urgently needed to avoid biodiversity declines related to this invader.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer108408
TidsskriftEcological Indicators
Vol/bind133
Antal sider10
ISSN1470-160X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - dec. 2021

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