Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisReviewForskningpeer review

DOI

  • Brent J. Sinclair, Univ Western Ontario, Western University (University of Western Ontario), Dept Biol
  • ,
  • Katie E. Marshall, Univ Oklahoma, University of Oklahoma - Norman, University of Oklahoma System, Dept Biol, Program Ecol & Evolutionary Biol
  • ,
  • Mary A. Sewell, Univ Auckland, University of Auckland, Sch Biol Sci
  • ,
  • Danielle L. Levesque, Univ Maine, University of Maine, University of Maine System, University of Maine Orono, Sch Biol & Ecol, Sustainabil Solut Initiat
  • ,
  • Christopher S. Willett, Univ N Carolina, University of North Carolina, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Dept Biol
  • ,
  • Stine Slotsbo
  • Yunwei Dong, Xiamen Univ, Xiamen University, State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci
  • ,
  • Christopher D. G. Harley, Univ British Columbia, University of British Columbia, Dept Zool
  • ,
  • David J. Marshall, Univ Brunei Darussalam, Fac Sci
  • ,
  • Brian S. Helmuth, Northeastern Univ, Northeastern University, Ctr Marine Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Urban Affairs
  • ,
  • Raymond B. Huey, Univ Washington, University of Washington, University of Washington Seattle, Dept Biol

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T-b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T-b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T-b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEcology Letters
Vol/bind19
Nummer11
Sider (fra-til)1372-1385
Antal sider14
ISSN1461-023X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - nov. 2016

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