Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  • Benjamin W. Abbott, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Jeremy B. Jones, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Edward A.G. Schuur, Northern Arizona University
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  • F. Stuart Chapin, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • William B. Bowden, Univ Vermont, University of Vermont, Dept Biol
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  • M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Howard E. Epstein, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia
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  • Michael D. Flannigan, Univ Alberta, University of Alberta, Dept Psychiat
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  • Tamara K. Harms, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Teresa N. Hollingsworth, United States Forest Service
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  • Michelle C. Mack, Northern Arizona University
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  • A. David McGuire, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
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  • Susan M. Natali, Woods Hole Res Ctr
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  • Adrian V. Rocha, University of Notre Dame
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  • Suzanne E. Tank, Univ Alberta, University of Alberta, Dept Psychiat
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  • Merritt R. Turetsky, Guelph University
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  • Jorien E Vonk, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
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  • Kimberly P. Wickland, United States Geological Survey
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  • George R. Aiken, United States Geological Survey
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  • Heather D. Alexander, Mississippi State University
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  • Rainer M.W. Amon, Texas Tech Univ, Texas Tech University, Texas Tech University System, Dept Phys
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  • Brian W. Benscoter, Florida State Univ, Florida State University, Florida State University System, Dept Oceanog
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  • Yves Bergeron, Laval University, Quebec
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  • Kevin Bishop, Swedish University for Agricultural Sciences
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  • Olivier Blarquez, University of Montreal, Montreal
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  • Ben Bond-Lamberty, EO Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy (DOE)
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  • Amy L. Breen, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Ishi Buffam, Univ Cincinnati, University of Cincinnati, Dept Geol
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  • Yihua Cai, Xiamen University
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  • Christopher Carcaillet, Ecole Prat Hautes Etud
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  • Sean K. Carey, McMaster University
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  • Jing M. Chen, University of Toronto, Ontario
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  • Han Y. H. Chen, Lakehead University
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  • Torben R. Christensen
  • Lee W. Cooper, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
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  • J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
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  • William J. de Groot, Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada
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  • Thomas H. DeLuca, Washington University
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  • Ellen Dorrepaal, Umeá University, Umeá
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  • Ned Fetcher, Wilkes Univ
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  • Jacques C. Finlay, Univ Minnesota, University of Minnesota System, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Dept Plant Biol
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  • Bruce C. Forbes, Univ Lapland
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  • Nancy H. F. French, Michigan Technological University
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  • Sylvie Gauthier, Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada
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  • Martin P. Girardin, Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada
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  • Scott J. Goetz, Woods Hole Res Ctr
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  • Johann G. Goldammer, Max Planck Inst Astron, Max Planck Society
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  • Laura Gough, Univ Maryland, University System of Maryland, University of Maryland College Park, Dept Biol
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  • Paul Grogan, Queens Univ, Queens University - Canada, Dept Chem
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  • Laodong Guo, Univ Wisconsin, University of Wisconsin Madison, University of Wisconsin System, Dept Phys
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  • Philip E. Higuera, Montana State Univ, Montana State University, Montana State University System, Montana State University Bozeman, Dept Phys
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  • Larry Hinzman, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Feng Sheng Hu, University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
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  • Gustaf Hugelius, University of Stockholm, Stockholm
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  • Elchin E. Jafarov, Univ Colorado, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado System, CASA
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  • Randi Jandt, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Jill F. Johnstone, Univ Saskatchewan, University of Saskatchewan, Dept Biol
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  • Jan Karlsson, Umeá University, Umeá
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  • Eric S. Kasischke, Univ. of Maryland
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  • Gerhard Kattner, Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar & Marine Research, Helmholtz Association, Alfred Wegener Inst
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  • Ryan Kelly, Neptune & Co Inc
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  • Frida Keuper, INRA
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  • George W. Kling, Univ Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan System, Dept Phys
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  • Pirkko Kortelainen, Finnish Environm Inst, Freshwater Ctr
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  • Jari Kouki, University of Eastern Finland
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  • Peter Kuhry, University of Stockholm, Stockholm
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  • Hjalmar Laudon, Swedish University for Agricultural Sciences
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  • Isabelle Laurion, Laval University, Quebec
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  • Robie W Macdonald, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
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  • Paul J. Mann, Northumbria University
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  • Pertti J Martikainen, University of Eastern Finland
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  • James W. McClelland, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
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  • Ulf Molau, Gothenburg University
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  • Steven F. Oberbauer, Florida State Univ, Florida State University, Florida State University System, Dept Oceanog
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  • David Olefeldt, Univ Alberta, University of Alberta, Dept Psychiat
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  • David Pare, Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada
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  • Marc-Andre Parisien, Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada
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  • Serge Payette, Univ Laval, Laval University, Dept Chem
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  • Changhui Peng, Dept. of Chemical Engineering, Northwest University, China
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  • Oleg S. Pokrovsky, Tomsk State University
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  • Edward B. Rastetter, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole
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  • Peter A. Raymond, Yale University
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  • Martha K. Raynolds, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Guillermo Rein, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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  • James F. Reynolds, Duke University
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  • Martin Robards, Arctic Beringia Program
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  • Brendan M. Rogers, Woods Hole Res Ctr
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  • Christina Schaedel, Northern Arizona University
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  • Kevin Schaefer, Univ Colorado, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado System, CASA
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  • Inger K Schmidt, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen
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  • Anatoly Shvidenko, Sukachev Inst Forest
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  • Jasper Sky, Cambridge Ctr Climate Change Res
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  • Robert G.M. Spencer, Florida State Univ, Florida State University, Florida State University System, Dept Oceanog
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  • Gregory Starr, Univ Alabama, University of Alabama System, University of Alabama Tuscaloosa, Dept Geog, Spatial Ecol & Conservat Lab
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  • Robert G. Striegl, United States Geological Survey
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  • Roman Teisserenc, Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse
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  • Lars J. Tranvik, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala
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  • Tarmo Virtanen, Helsinki University
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  • Jeffrey M. Welker, Univ Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Alaska System, Sch Fisheries & Ocean Sci
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  • Sergei Zimov, Russian Academy og Sciences

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer034014
TidsskriftEnvironmental Research Letters
Vol/bind11
Nummer3
Antal sider13
ISSN1748-9326
DOI
StatusUdgivet - mar. 2016

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