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Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

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  • Elie Gaget, University of Turku
  • ,
  • Diego Pavón-Jordán, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
  • ,
  • Alison Johnston, Cornell University, University of Cambridge
  • ,
  • Aleksi Lehikoinen, University of Helsinki
  • ,
  • Wesley M. Hochachka, Cornell University
  • ,
  • Brett K. Sandercock, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
  • ,
  • Alaaeldin Soultan, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • ,
  • Hichem Azafzaf, Association "Les Amis des Oiseaux" (AAO/BirdLife en Tunisie)
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  • Nadjiba Bendjedda, Ben Aknoun
  • ,
  • Taulant Bino, Albaninan Ornithological Society
  • ,
  • Luka Božič, Društvo za opazovanje in proučevanje ptic Slovenije (DOPPS)
  • ,
  • Preben Clausen
  • Mohamed Dakki, Mohammed V University in Rabat
  • ,
  • Koen Devos, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Brussels
  • ,
  • Cristi Domsa, Romanian Ornithological Society
  • ,
  • Vitor Encarnação, Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests
  • ,
  • Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz, Ondokuz Mayis University
  • ,
  • Sándor Faragó, University of Sopron
  • ,
  • Teresa Frost, British Trust for Ornithology
  • ,
  • Clemence Gaudard, LPO-BirdLife France, France
  • ,
  • Lívia Gosztonyi, University of Sopron
  • ,
  • Fredrik Haas, Lund University
  • ,
  • Menno Hornman, Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology
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  • Tom Langendoen, Wetlands International
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  • Christina Ieronymidou, Birdlife Cyprus
  • ,
  • Vasiliy A. Kostyushin, National Academy of Sciences in Ukraine
  • ,
  • Lesley J. Lewis, BirdWatch Ireland
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  • Svein Håkon Lorentsen, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
  • ,
  • Leho Luigujõe, Estonian University of Life Sciences
  • ,
  • Włodzimierz Meissner, University of Gdansk
  • ,
  • Tibor Mikuska, Croatian Society for Bird and Nature Protection
  • ,
  • Blas Molina, Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife)
  • ,
  • Zuzana Musilová, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
  • ,
  • Viktor Natykanets, Belarus Academy of Sciences
  • ,
  • Jean Yves Paquet, Département Études Aves-Natagora
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  • Nicky Petkov, Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds
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  • Danae Portolou, Hellenic Ornithological Society, Athens
  • ,
  • Jozef Ridzoň, SOS/BirdLife Slovakia
  • ,
  • Samir Sayoud, Ben Aknoun
  • ,
  • Marko Šćiban, Bird Protection and Study Society of Serbia
  • ,
  • Laimonas Sniauksta, BirdLife International
  • ,
  • Antra Stīpniece, University of Latvia
  • ,
  • Nicolas Strebel, Swiss Ornithological Institute
  • ,
  • Norbert Teufelbauer, BirdLife Österreich
  • ,
  • Goran Topić, Nase Ptice Ornithological Society
  • ,
  • Danka Uzunova, Macedonian Ecological Society
  • ,
  • Andrej Vizi, Natural History Museum of Montenegro
  • ,
  • Johannes Wahl, Federation of German Avifaunists (DDA)
  • ,
  • Marco Zenatello, ?Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
  • ,
  • Jon E. Brommer, University of Turku

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftConservation Biology
Vol/bind35
Nummer3
Sider (fra-til)834-845
Antal sider12
ISSN0888-8892
DOI
StatusUdgivet - jun. 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge the thousands of volunteers and professionals involved in the International Waterbird Census, which made this research possible. This research was funded through the 2017?2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND program, with the following funding organizations: the Academy of Finland (Univ. Turku: 326327, Univ. Helsinki: 326338), the Swedish Research Council (Swedish Univ. Agric. Sci: 2018?02440, Lund Univ.: 2018?02441), the Research Council of Norway (Norwegian Instit. for Nature Res., 295767), and the National Science Foundation (Cornell Univ., ICER-1927646), and we also acknowledge the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. We thank 2 anonymous reviewers for useful comments on a previous version of this article.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology

Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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