A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States

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We study whether it is better to enforce the zero lower bound (ZLB) in models of U.S. Treasury yields using a shadow rate model or a quadratic term structure model. We show that the models achieve a similar in-sample fit and perform comparably in matching conditional expectations of future yields. However, when the recent ZLB period is included in the sample, the models' ability to match conditional expectations away from the ZLB deteriorates because the time-series dynamics of the pricing factors change. In addition, neither model provides a reasonable description of conditional volatilities when yields are away from the ZLB.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftJournal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Vol/bind54
Nummer5
Sider (fra-til)2261-2292
Antal sider32
ISSN0022-1090
DOI
StatusUdgivet - okt. 2019

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