A fuzzy logic methodology for assessing the resilience of past communities to tephra fall: a Laacher See eruption 13,000 year BP case

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A fuzzy logic methodology for assessing the resilience of past communities to tephra fall: a Laacher See eruption 13,000 year BP case. / Blong, Russell; Riede, Felix; Chen, Qianyang.

I: Volcanica, Bind 1, Nr. 1, 22.07.2018, s. 63-84.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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@article{732e45e154aa4c5da5725aa744b5ab45,
title = "A fuzzy logic methodology for assessing the resilience of past communities to tephra fall: a Laacher See eruption 13,000 year BP case",
abstract = "While volcanologists are experienced in assessing present and past volcanism, and while archaeologists are experts in understanding past societies, the study of how ancient volcanic activity has impacted contemporaneous communities remains little systematised. We here present a fuzzy logic-based methodology for bringing together expert assessments in evaluating the vulnerability and, by extension, the resilience of a group of late Pleistocene foragers to the Laacher See eruption 13,000 years ago. Based on attributes assessing human health, shelter, food supply, and water supply our analyses suggest community resilience falls as tephra fall thickness increases. Our explicit assessment of di↵erent experts’ evaluation of the different attributes’ relative importance facilitates a rigour in formulating such impact scenarios. The methodology can be readily transferred between case studies and, in principle, between hazards, and could contribute significantly to the design of realistic disaster scenarios.",
author = "Russell Blong and Felix Riede and Qianyang Chen",
year = "2018",
month = "7",
day = "22",
doi = "10.30909/vol.01.01.6384",
language = "English",
volume = "1",
pages = "63--84",
journal = "Volcanica",
issn = "2610-3540",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A fuzzy logic methodology for assessing the resilience of past communities to tephra fall: a Laacher See eruption 13,000 year BP case

AU - Blong, Russell

AU - Riede, Felix

AU - Chen, Qianyang

PY - 2018/7/22

Y1 - 2018/7/22

N2 - While volcanologists are experienced in assessing present and past volcanism, and while archaeologists are experts in understanding past societies, the study of how ancient volcanic activity has impacted contemporaneous communities remains little systematised. We here present a fuzzy logic-based methodology for bringing together expert assessments in evaluating the vulnerability and, by extension, the resilience of a group of late Pleistocene foragers to the Laacher See eruption 13,000 years ago. Based on attributes assessing human health, shelter, food supply, and water supply our analyses suggest community resilience falls as tephra fall thickness increases. Our explicit assessment of di↵erent experts’ evaluation of the different attributes’ relative importance facilitates a rigour in formulating such impact scenarios. The methodology can be readily transferred between case studies and, in principle, between hazards, and could contribute significantly to the design of realistic disaster scenarios.

AB - While volcanologists are experienced in assessing present and past volcanism, and while archaeologists are experts in understanding past societies, the study of how ancient volcanic activity has impacted contemporaneous communities remains little systematised. We here present a fuzzy logic-based methodology for bringing together expert assessments in evaluating the vulnerability and, by extension, the resilience of a group of late Pleistocene foragers to the Laacher See eruption 13,000 years ago. Based on attributes assessing human health, shelter, food supply, and water supply our analyses suggest community resilience falls as tephra fall thickness increases. Our explicit assessment of di↵erent experts’ evaluation of the different attributes’ relative importance facilitates a rigour in formulating such impact scenarios. The methodology can be readily transferred between case studies and, in principle, between hazards, and could contribute significantly to the design of realistic disaster scenarios.

U2 - 10.30909/vol.01.01.6384

DO - 10.30909/vol.01.01.6384

M3 - Journal article

VL - 1

SP - 63

EP - 84

JO - Volcanica

JF - Volcanica

SN - 2610-3540

IS - 1

ER -