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30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

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DOI

  • Lee Hannah, Conservation International
  • ,
  • Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Conservation International
  • ,
  • Pablo A. Marquet, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santa Fe Institute
  • ,
  • Brian J. Enquist, Santa Fe Institute, University of Arizona
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  • Guy Midgley, University of Stellenbosch
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  • Wendy Foden, South African National Parks
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  • Jon C. Lovett, University of Leeds, Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
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  • Richard T. Corlett, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • ,
  • Derek Corcoran, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Universidad de Chile
  • ,
  • Stuart H.M. Butchart, BirdLife International, University of Cambridge
  • ,
  • Brad Boyle, University of Arizona
  • ,
  • Xiao Feng, University of Arizona
  • ,
  • Brian Maitner, University of Arizona
  • ,
  • Javier Fajardo, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Universidad de Chile
  • ,
  • Brian J. McGill, University of Maine
  • ,
  • Cory Merow, Univ. of Connecticut
  • ,
  • Naia Morueta-Holme, Københavns Universitet
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  • Erica A. Newman, University of Arizona
  • ,
  • Daniel S. Park, Harvard University
  • ,
  • Niels Raes, Naturalis Biodiversity Center
  • ,
  • Jens Christian Svenning

Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEcography
Vol/bind43
Nummer7
Sider (fra-til)943-953
Antal sider11
ISSN0906-7590
DOI
StatusUdgivet - jul. 2020

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