Nils Skajaa

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forty-year Seasonality Trends in Occurrence of Myocardial Infarction, Ischemic Stroke, and Hemorrhagic Stroke

AU - Skajaa, Nils

AU - Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

AU - Sundbøll, Jens

AU - Adelborg, Kasper

AU - Rothman, Kenneth J

AU - Sørensen, Henrik Toft

PY - 2018/11

Y1 - 2018/11

N2 - BACKGROUND: The occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke has decreased in recent years, but trends in seasonal occurrence remain unclear.METHODS: Using Danish healthcare databases, we identified all patients with a first-time MI, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke during the study period (1977-2016). We summarized monthly cases for each disease separately and computed the peak-to-trough ratio as a measure of seasonal occurrence of one cycle. To examine trends over time in seasonal occurrence, we computed the peak-to-trough ratio for each of the 40 years. We also quantified the amount of bias arising from random error in peak-to-trough ratios.RESULTS: Before consideration of bias, the peak-to-trough ratio of summarized monthly cases was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10, 1.12) for MI, 1.08 (95% CI = 1.07, 1.09) for ischemic stroke, and 1.12 (95% CI = 1.10, 1.14) for hemorrhagic stroke. The peak-to-trough ratio of MI occurrence increased from 1.09 (95% CI = 1.04, 1.15) in 1977 to 1.16 (95% CI = 1.09, 1.23) in 1999. The trend then remained stable. The peak-to-trough ratio of ischemic stroke occurrence declined continuously during the study period, dropping from 1.12 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.24) in 1977 to 1.06 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.12) in 2016. The peak-to-trough ratio of hemorrhagic stroke occurrence remained stable over time. However, after adjusting for potential bias, time trends in peak-to-trough ratios were almost flat.CONCLUSIONS: We found no substantial seasonality for MI, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke occurrence during 1977-2016. Modest peak-to-trough ratios should be interpreted after considering bias induced by random variation.

AB - BACKGROUND: The occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke has decreased in recent years, but trends in seasonal occurrence remain unclear.METHODS: Using Danish healthcare databases, we identified all patients with a first-time MI, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke during the study period (1977-2016). We summarized monthly cases for each disease separately and computed the peak-to-trough ratio as a measure of seasonal occurrence of one cycle. To examine trends over time in seasonal occurrence, we computed the peak-to-trough ratio for each of the 40 years. We also quantified the amount of bias arising from random error in peak-to-trough ratios.RESULTS: Before consideration of bias, the peak-to-trough ratio of summarized monthly cases was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10, 1.12) for MI, 1.08 (95% CI = 1.07, 1.09) for ischemic stroke, and 1.12 (95% CI = 1.10, 1.14) for hemorrhagic stroke. The peak-to-trough ratio of MI occurrence increased from 1.09 (95% CI = 1.04, 1.15) in 1977 to 1.16 (95% CI = 1.09, 1.23) in 1999. The trend then remained stable. The peak-to-trough ratio of ischemic stroke occurrence declined continuously during the study period, dropping from 1.12 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.24) in 1977 to 1.06 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.12) in 2016. The peak-to-trough ratio of hemorrhagic stroke occurrence remained stable over time. However, after adjusting for potential bias, time trends in peak-to-trough ratios were almost flat.CONCLUSIONS: We found no substantial seasonality for MI, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke occurrence during 1977-2016. Modest peak-to-trough ratios should be interpreted after considering bias induced by random variation.

U2 - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000892

DO - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000892

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 30028346

VL - 29

SP - 777

EP - 783

JO - Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)

JF - Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)

SN - 1044-3983

IS - 6

ER -