Institut for Statskundskab

Matt W. Loftis

A Dynamic Linear Modelling Approach to Public Policy Change

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A Dynamic Linear Modelling Approach to Public Policy Change. / Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre.

I: Journal of Public Policy, Bind 38, Nr. 4, 2018, s. 553-579.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Loftis, Matthew ; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre. / A Dynamic Linear Modelling Approach to Public Policy Change. I: Journal of Public Policy. 2018 ; Bind 38, Nr. 4. s. 553-579.

Bibtex

@article{0c6b452e7de548e2a689f532671d47c1,
title = "A Dynamic Linear Modelling Approach to Public Policy Change",
abstract = "Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how this research program can profit from applying DLMs.",
keywords = "punctuated equilibrium theory, public policy, public spending, policy dynamics",
author = "Matthew Loftis and Mortensen, {Peter Bjerre}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1017/S0143814X17000186",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
pages = "553--579",
journal = "Journal of Public Policy",
issn = "0143-814X",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Dynamic Linear Modelling Approach to Public Policy Change

AU - Loftis, Matthew

AU - Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how this research program can profit from applying DLMs.

AB - Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how this research program can profit from applying DLMs.

KW - punctuated equilibrium theory

KW - public policy

KW - public spending

KW - policy dynamics

U2 - 10.1017/S0143814X17000186

DO - 10.1017/S0143814X17000186

M3 - Journal article

VL - 38

SP - 553

EP - 579

JO - Journal of Public Policy

JF - Journal of Public Policy

SN - 0143-814X

IS - 4

ER -