Institut for Biologi

Aarhus University Seal / Aarhus Universitets segl

J.-C. Svenning

The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Standard

The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). / Ahmadi, Kourosh; Alavi, Seyed Jalil; Amiri, Ghavamudin Zahedi; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Svenning, Jens Christian.

I: International Journal of Biometeorology, Bind 64, Nr. 9, 09.2020, s. 1451-1462.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Harvard

Ahmadi, K, Alavi, SJ, Amiri, GZ, Hosseini, SM, Serra-Diaz, JM & Svenning, JC 2020, 'The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)', International Journal of Biometeorology, bind 64, nr. 9, s. 1451-1462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

APA

Ahmadi, K., Alavi, S. J., Amiri, G. Z., Hosseini, S. M., Serra-Diaz, J. M., & Svenning, J. C. (2020). The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). International Journal of Biometeorology, 64(9), 1451-1462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

CBE

Ahmadi K, Alavi SJ, Amiri GZ, Hosseini SM, Serra-Diaz JM, Svenning JC. 2020. The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). International Journal of Biometeorology. 64(9):1451-1462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

MLA

Vancouver

Ahmadi K, Alavi SJ, Amiri GZ, Hosseini SM, Serra-Diaz JM, Svenning JC. The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). International Journal of Biometeorology. 2020 sep;64(9):1451-1462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

Author

Ahmadi, Kourosh ; Alavi, Seyed Jalil ; Amiri, Ghavamudin Zahedi ; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen ; Serra-Diaz, Josep M. ; Svenning, Jens Christian. / The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). I: International Journal of Biometeorology. 2020 ; Bind 64, Nr. 9. s. 1451-1462.

Bibtex

@article{4c1357a101f84bee899f3217910b16fb,
title = "The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)",
abstract = "The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified. Taxus baccata is among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of T. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution of T. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution of T. baccata in northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area for T. baccata in Hyrcanian forests is 5.89 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) to 9.74 × 103 km2 (global modeling). The modeling suggests that climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 is likely to lead to strong suitability reductions in the region, with just between 0.63 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) and 0.57 × 103 km2 (global modeling) suitable area in 2070. Hence, T. baccata risks losing most currently suitable areas in the Hyrcanian forests under climate change. The results of the present study suggest there should be focus on conservation of areas predicted to remain suitable through near-future climate change and provide an estimate of the availability of suitable areas for the regeneration of T. baccata and its use in reforestation.",
keywords = "Climate change, Conservation, European yew, Hyrcanian forest, Species distribution models, CONSERVATION STATUS, POPULATION, RESOLUTION, VULNERABILITY, SHIFTS, SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS, CONSEQUENCES, PREDICTIONS, DIVERSITY, RANGE, Trees, Forests, Taxus, Animals, Climate Change, Iran, Ecosystem",
author = "Kourosh Ahmadi and Alavi, {Seyed Jalil} and Amiri, {Ghavamudin Zahedi} and Hosseini, {Seyed Mohsen} and Serra-Diaz, {Josep M.} and Svenning, {Jens Christian}",
year = "2020",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z",
language = "English",
volume = "64",
pages = "1451--1462",
journal = "International Journal of Biometeorology",
issn = "0020-7128",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)

AU - Ahmadi, Kourosh

AU - Alavi, Seyed Jalil

AU - Amiri, Ghavamudin Zahedi

AU - Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen

AU - Serra-Diaz, Josep M.

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

PY - 2020/9

Y1 - 2020/9

N2 - The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified. Taxus baccata is among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of T. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution of T. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution of T. baccata in northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area for T. baccata in Hyrcanian forests is 5.89 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) to 9.74 × 103 km2 (global modeling). The modeling suggests that climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 is likely to lead to strong suitability reductions in the region, with just between 0.63 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) and 0.57 × 103 km2 (global modeling) suitable area in 2070. Hence, T. baccata risks losing most currently suitable areas in the Hyrcanian forests under climate change. The results of the present study suggest there should be focus on conservation of areas predicted to remain suitable through near-future climate change and provide an estimate of the availability of suitable areas for the regeneration of T. baccata and its use in reforestation.

AB - The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified. Taxus baccata is among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of T. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution of T. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution of T. baccata in northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area for T. baccata in Hyrcanian forests is 5.89 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) to 9.74 × 103 km2 (global modeling). The modeling suggests that climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 is likely to lead to strong suitability reductions in the region, with just between 0.63 × 103 km2 (regional modeling) and 0.57 × 103 km2 (global modeling) suitable area in 2070. Hence, T. baccata risks losing most currently suitable areas in the Hyrcanian forests under climate change. The results of the present study suggest there should be focus on conservation of areas predicted to remain suitable through near-future climate change and provide an estimate of the availability of suitable areas for the regeneration of T. baccata and its use in reforestation.

KW - Climate change

KW - Conservation

KW - European yew

KW - Hyrcanian forest

KW - Species distribution models

KW - CONSERVATION STATUS

KW - POPULATION

KW - RESOLUTION

KW - VULNERABILITY

KW - SHIFTS

KW - SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS

KW - CONSEQUENCES

KW - PREDICTIONS

KW - DIVERSITY

KW - RANGE

KW - Trees

KW - Forests

KW - Taxus

KW - Animals

KW - Climate Change

KW - Iran

KW - Ecosystem

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85086164037&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

DO - 10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32518999

AN - SCOPUS:85086164037

VL - 64

SP - 1451

EP - 1462

JO - International Journal of Biometeorology

JF - International Journal of Biometeorology

SN - 0020-7128

IS - 9

ER -