Institut for Biologi

Aarhus University Seal / Aarhus Universitets segl

J.-C. Svenning

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change

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The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change. / Wang, Wen Ting; Guo, Wen Yong; Jarvie, Scott; Svenning, Jens Christian.

I: Ecology and Evolution, Bind 11, Nr. 2, 01.2021, s. 887-899.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avisTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Wang, Wen Ting ; Guo, Wen Yong ; Jarvie, Scott ; Svenning, Jens Christian. / The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change. I: Ecology and Evolution. 2021 ; Bind 11, Nr. 2. s. 887-899.

Bibtex

@article{9ad31e104a8e412bb1cf7e32f4123a6c,
title = "The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change",
abstract = "High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinlin Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.",
keywords = "alpine plants, climate change, climate refugia, dispersal routes, species{\textquoteright} vulnerability",
author = "Wang, {Wen Ting} and Guo, {Wen Yong} and Scott Jarvie and Svenning, {Jens Christian}",
note = "{\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2021",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1002/ece3.7096",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
pages = "887--899",
journal = "Ecology and Evolution",
issn = "2045-7758",
publisher = "John Wiley Sons Ltd",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change

AU - Wang, Wen Ting

AU - Guo, Wen Yong

AU - Jarvie, Scott

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

N1 - © 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2021/1

Y1 - 2021/1

N2 - High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinlin Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.

AB - High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinlin Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.

KW - alpine plants

KW - climate change

KW - climate refugia

KW - dispersal routes

KW - species’ vulnerability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85098187651&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/ece3.7096

DO - 10.1002/ece3.7096

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33520173

AN - SCOPUS:85098187651

VL - 11

SP - 887

EP - 899

JO - Ecology and Evolution

JF - Ecology and Evolution

SN - 2045-7758

IS - 2

ER -